Cardano (ADA) firmly holds the 0.85 USD support level! The Fed's interest rate cut expectations in September may trigger a 300% big pump, and the grayscale ETF approval is the biggest variable.

Cardano (ADA) has recently been fluctuating in the range of $0.82-$0.87, firmly holding the key support level at $0.85. The technical indicators show a divergence: the neutral RSI of 52 indicates room for upward movement, while the MACD death cross suggests potential downside risk. This article deeply analyzes the breakthrough strategy for the $0.95 resistance level, combining the expectations of a Fed rate cut in September and the progress of Grayscale's ADA ETF approval, to predict the possible paths for ADA to challenge $1 and even $3.

[Technical Analysis: The battle between bulls and bears has entered a white-hot stage]

◎ Key Price Level System

Immediate support: $0.85 (psychological level + weekly benchmark)

Strong support level: $0.80 (50-day EMA overlap level)

Immediate resistance: $0.95 (upper boundary of the consolidation range)

Breakthrough targets: $1.05-$1.10 (August target level), $3 (macro-driven target)

◎ Divergence in indicator signals

The RSI is in the neutral zone at 52, not entering overbought territory, leaving room for an upward move; however, the MACD shows bearish divergence, indicating a weakening of short-term momentum. This technical divergence typically signals an impending directional breakout, with trading volume being a key determining factor.

[Institutional Trends: Grayscale ETF Approval Delayed to October 26]

The US SEC recently postponed the Grayscale Cardano ETF decision to October 26, this move:

Short-term bearish: prolonged regulatory uncertainty suppresses institutional capital entry.

Long-term benefits: If approved, it will open up traditional capital channels and replicate the successful path of Bitcoin ETF. Historical data shows that the average volatility of related assets increases by 47% in the 90 days prior to ETF approval, so investors are advised to manage their positions well.

[Macroeconomic Catalyst: The Historic Opportunity of the Fed's Rate Cut in September]

CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a rate cut in September has reached 88.7%. If this becomes a reality:

1. Risk assets will receive liquidity injections, with the crypto market being the first to be affected.

2. ADA is expected to replicate the 300% surge during the Fed's rate cut cycle in 2020.

3. The probability of breaking through key technical levels will increase by 2-3 times.

[Bullish and Bearish Perspectives: Divergence in Institutional Analysts' Positions]

Bull market camp:

1. Short-term target $0.95 (technical breakout)

2. Target of 1.05-1.10 USD by the end of August (requires trading volume cooperation)

3. Target $3 in a rate cut scenario (macro-driven)

Bear Market Warning:

1. If the support level of 0.85 is broken, it may fall to 0.50 dollars.

2. The delay in ETF approval has led to a lack of confidence among institutions.

3. Overall cryptocurrency market capitalization volatility is increasing.

[Bitcoin Correlation Analysis: Significant Barometer Effect]

The 90-day correlation coefficient between ADA and Bitcoin reached 0.78, indicating:

1. If Bitcoin breaks through the resistance level of 115,000, ADA is expected to rise in sync.

2. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies returning to $3.9 trillion presents beta opportunities for the industry.

3. It is recommended to monitor the support effect of Bitcoin's 50-day EMA ($111,000) simultaneously.

Conclusion: The impending breakout from the triangle consolidation

Cardano is at a critical juncture where technical and fundamental aspects resonate. The defense of the support at $0.85 showcases underlying buying power, while the expectation of a rate cut in September provides a macro tailwind. Although the approval of the ETF has been delayed, it opens up imaginative possibilities. Investors are advised to adopt a "core position holding + tactical position trading" strategy, which allows them to not miss out on breakout opportunities while controlling downside risk. Pay close attention to the trading volume changes in the last week of August, as this could be the clearest signal before a move starts.

This analysis is for reference only. Investing in cryptocurrencies carries a high risk. ADA's historical maximum drawdown reached 95%. Please make decisions carefully based on your own risk tolerance.