Over $4.5 billion in crypto options are set to expire! Bitcoin's biggest pain point is $112,000, Ethereum's is $4,400, and US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) may be the key turning point for the market.

The Deribit exchange will have over 4.5 billion dollars in crypto options expiring on September 5, with Bitcoin options having a notional value of 3.28 billion dollars, a put/call ratio of 1.38, and a maximum pain point of 112,000 dollars; Ethereum options have a notional value of 1.27 billion dollars, a put/call ratio of 0.78, and a maximum pain point of 4,400 dollars. Currently, the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum are both below the maximum pain points, and the market is facing significant selling pressure. Investors are closely watching the U.S. non-farm payroll data to be released tonight; if the employment data is weak and the unemployment rate rises to 4.3%, it may strengthen Fed rate cut expectations and drive a market rebound.

Options Expiration Details: Bitcoin is leaning bearish, while Ethereum is relatively balanced.

According to Deribit data, the scale of Bitcoin Options expiring on September 5th reached 3.28 billion USD, with a put/call ratio of 1.39, indicating a clear bearish market sentiment. Put options are concentrated at strike prices of 105,000 to 110,000 USD, suggesting that most traders expect the price of Bitcoin to fall below 105,000 USD.

The scale of Ethereum Options is $1.27 billion, with a put/call ratio of 0.78, indicating a relatively balanced sentiment. Bullish options (calls) are accumulating significantly above $4,500, and if the price breaks through this resistance level, it could drive Ethereum to test historical highs of $4,700 and even $5,000.

In terms of other mainstream coins:

• XRP Options size 5.54 million USD, put/call ratio 0.93, maximum pain point 2.90 USD;
• Solana Options scale 29.87 million USD, put/call ratio 0.32, maximum pain point 200 USD.

Reasons for Market Pressure: Profit Taking, Seasonal Factors, and Macroeconomic Uncertainty

Bitcoin and Ethereum have recently fallen about 10% and 12% respectively from their historical highs of $124,128 and $4,946, facing multiple pressures:

1. Profit-taking and whale selling: On-chain data shows that whales continue to transfer ETH to exchanges, with a net outflow of $135 million in the recent US spot Ethereum ETF, while the Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow during the same period, indicating a clear rotation of funds.
2. Seasonal weakness: Historical data shows that September is the only month with a negative average return for Bitcoin (average fall of 4.6%), known as "Red September." Investor quarter-end repositioning, shrinking trading volume, and policy uncertainty usually exacerbate market volatility.
3. High leverage risk: The open interest of Bitcoin perpetual contracts is at an annual high, and the funding rate fluctuates between negative and neutral, making the price susceptible to severe two-way squeezes.
4. Technical indicators weaken: Bitcoin has fallen below the daily Ichimoku cloud for the first time since February, the weekly MACD has shown a bearish crossover, and the short-term structure is bearish.

Non-farm data becomes the market focus, weak data may trigger a rise in interest rate cut expectations

The market generally expects that 75,000 new non-farm jobs will be added in August (previous value 73,000), and the unemployment rate will rise to 4.3% (previous value 4.2%). If the data falls short of expectations, it may strengthen the Fed's reasoning for cutting interest rates (currently, the probability of a rate cut in September is over 99%), driving a rebound in risk assets.

However, if the data is strong, it may delay the interest rate cut process, exacerbating market selling pressure in the short term. Recent statements from Fed officials highlight policy differences: Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari warns that tariffs are driving up inflation, while Atlanta Fed President Bostic emphasizes that high inflation remains a major risk.

Analyst's View: Cautious in the Short Term, Optimistic in the Long Term, Key Support Levels Under Observation

K33 Research Director Vetle Lunde pointed out that tariff impacts, economic data releases, and the "September curse" could drive Bitcoin further down, with key support levels around 101,000 and 94,000 dollars. However, he emphasized that the long-term bullish logic remains unchanged, with fiscal expansion, Fed rate cuts, and the inclusion of cryptocurrencies in retirement systems still being positive factors for the future.

For Ethereum, analysts believe that it needs to break through and stabilize above 4,500 USD to confirm a new rising trend; otherwise, it may test the support zone of 4,100–4,200 USD.

According to the data from the validator queue tracking website, the Ethereum PoS network's staking entry queue has surpassed the exit staking queue today. The current entry queue is 833,000 coins, worth approximately 3.66 billion dollars, while the current exit queue is 823,000 coins, worth approximately 3.62 billion dollars.

It is worth noting that the staking demand for new validators activated on the Ethereum PoS network has surged significantly, reaching its highest level since September 2023 on September 2, amounting to 860,000 coins.

Conclusion

The short-term trend of the encryption market will depend on the position adjustment after the expiration of the Options and the guidance of non-farm data. Investors need to be alert to the liquidation risks of high-leverage contracts while following the performance of Bitcoin at 101,000 USD and Ether at 4,200 USD key support levels. If the non-farm data is weak and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations strengthen, the market may see a Rebound opportunity; on the contrary, if the data is strong or inflation concerns resurface, the adjustment trend may continue.