Gate Research Institute: High tariffs and regulatory pressures lead to hedging, BTC falls below 109,000 | XPL launches big pump

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Encryption Assets Overview

BTC (-3.51% | Current Price 109,577 USDT)

BTC has recently oscillated and retreated after peaking at 117,100.0 USD, dipping to a low of 108,615.8 USD at one point, with the current price stabilizing slightly around 109,577.6 USD. The short-term moving averages (MA5, MA10) are intertwined and consolidating, indicating uncertainty in the short-term trend, while MA30 continues to maintain a downward trend, suggesting a strong overall bearish atmosphere. Recent trading volumes have amplified alongside the decline, indicating that market selling pressure remains strong. If the price fails to effectively break through and stabilize above the 110,000 USD threshold, the rebound momentum will be limited, and it may maintain a weak oscillating trend in the short term. Key support to watch below is at 109,000–108,600 USD; once breached, it may further test the previous low at 108,615.8 USD. If it can break through and increase in volume to 110,500 USD, a certain rebound recovery may occur. It is advisable to remain cautious in operations, primarily participating with a light position and setting stop-loss orders.

ETH (-5.18% | Current Price 3,918 USDT)

ETH has continued to face downward pressure after reaching a high of $4,766, recently falling to a low of $3,824, and is currently stabilizing around $3,870. The short-term moving averages (MA5, MA10) are still operating below MA30, indicating that the bearish trend has not yet been reversed. The decline has been accompanied by increased trading volume, suggesting that market selling pressure is concentrated. If it cannot regain a position above $3,950–$4,000 in the short term, the rebound strength may be limited, and there is a risk of further testing the $3,800 support. If it breaks below this range, it may further test the $3,700 level. Conversely, if it breaks out with volume and stands above $4,050, a technical recovery trend may be expected. Overall, ETH is currently in a weak consolidation phase, with a focus on observation in operations, while aggressive traders can cautiously attempt to buy low, but strict stop-loss control is necessary.

GT (-3.57% | Current Price 15.69 USDT)

GT has recently experienced a fluctuation after reaching a peak of 17.17 USD, dipping to a low of 14.90 USD, with the current price stabilizing slightly around 15.70 USD. The short-term moving averages (MA5, MA10) continue to suppress the trend, and MA30 remains in a downtrend, indicating a strong overall bearish sentiment. Recent trading volume has increased alongside the decline, showing strong market selling pressure. If the price cannot effectively break through and stabilize above the 16.00 USD level, the rebound will be limited, and it may maintain a weak oscillation pattern in the short term. Key support is focused on the 15.20–15.00 USD range, and if this is lost, it may test the previous low again. If a strong breakout above 16.20 USD occurs, a rebound repair trend may be anticipated. It is advisable to remain cautious in operations, primarily participating with light positions and setting stop-loss orders.

Daily Price Fluctuation Tokens

In the past 24 hours, the overall performance of the encryption market has been divergent. BTC fell by 3.05%, maintaining a range-bound operation; ETH saw a larger decline of 4.68%, showing relatively weak performance; SOL continued to decline, with a drop of 7.04%, clearly underperforming other mainstream public chain tokens. In contrast, USDT slightly rose by 0.02%, showing relatively stable performance. XRP fell by 5.02%, and BNB dropped by 5.93%, with overall performance being weak. Market funds are leaning towards safe havens, with a clear overall structural rotation characteristic.

XPL Plasma (+178%, circulating market cap 2.29 billion USD)

According to Gate market data, the current price of the XPL token is $0.89, having increased by 178% in the last 24 hours. Plasma is a high-performance first-layer blockchain specifically designed for stablecoins, dedicated to serving a stablecoin market that has surpassed a total issuance volume of $275 billion and monthly transaction volumes in the trillions. Its core advantages include zero-fee USDT transfers, customizable Gas tokens, and convenient encryption payments, while its exceptional throughput provides solid support for global-level transaction circulation.

The recent rise of XPL is mainly driven by technological advancements and market demand. The introduction of Plasma's zero-fee USDT transfer feature and customizable Gas tokens has significantly enhanced its competitiveness in the stablecoin sector. In addition, the high throughput capabilities provided by Plasma meet the demands for large-scale transaction circulation globally, attracting more projects and users to join. As the stablecoin market continues to expand, Plasma's role as critical infrastructure becomes increasingly important, and the market's expectations for its long-term development prospects further drive up the token price.

SQD Subsquid (+65.61%, circulating market value 18.46 million USD)

According to Gate market data, the current price of the SQD token is $0.1251, having increased by 65.61% in the last 24 hours. Subsquid Network is a highly scalable data access layer designed to support decentralized applications (dApps), capable of providing the critical data needed for blockchain, thus optimizing the user experience. As an indexing protocol, Subsquid's core advantage lies in its extremely efficient data access capabilities, helping developers simplify the development of blockchain applications.

Recently, Subsquid completed the Full Solana History Integration, allowing developers access to decades of blockchain data from Solana. In addition, the team is expanding the network scale, planning to increase the number of working nodes to 4,500 and optimizing the reward mechanism to maintain a balance between decentralization and incentives. In the future, a low-latency "Spray" service will be launched to further enhance the performance of data query services. The project's positioning is also gradually transforming, moving from an infrastructure tool to a developer-friendly decentralized data access layer, and it has already integrated with over 200 EVM and Substrate networks, with Solana support still in beta. To enhance long-term value, Subsquid is also adjusting its reward mechanism, planning to set a reward target of 7% APY to further attract investors.

SKX SKPANAX (+25.8%, circulating market value 220 million USD)

According to the market data from Gate, the current price of the SKX token is $2.20, with a 25.8% increase in the last 24 hours. The SKX token represents a new vision for the Web 3.0 ecosystem, as the team has built an online platform along with a token ecosystem used in actual offline operational stores, aimed at supporting small businesses in brand promotion and marketing, and helping them realize the vision of Web 3.0.

Recently, the rise of SKX has been driven by multiple factors, including ProBit Global's relisting of the SKX/USDT trading pair, which significantly enhanced market liquidity and investor confidence. In addition, the market sentiment for SKX is high, with the RSI reaching 94.08, indicating strong buying sentiment. The lower supply has also intensified price volatility, further boosting the rise. Finally, SKX is expanding its ecosystem through the SKX Mall and attracting more participants through user reward mechanisms, enhancing the practical application and market demand for the token.

Hotspot Interpretation

Plasma mainnet is online, XPL engine has been activated.

The Plasma blockchain mainnet Beta has officially launched, accompanied by the simultaneous listing of the XPL token on multiple exchanges. On the first day of launch, the market capitalization of XPL temporarily surpassed 2.4 billion USD, with the price surging over 50%. Notably, all users who participated in the pre-staking program received an airdrop of 9,304 XPL, which is approximately 8,390 USD at the current price, even if they ultimately did not purchase XPL in the ICO. This generous distribution model greatly enhanced community participation enthusiasm and attracted strong attention to Plasma right from the launch phase. Additionally, Plasma has also launched its native bank and card services for Plasma One stablecoin, supporting zero-fee USDT transfers (limited to basic stablecoin transfers), enhancing payment and usage scenarios.

With the support of Tether's funds and ecosystem, Plasma starts with a massive scale and liquidity, making it inherently attractive to DeFi projects. The generosity of the airdrop not only enhances the earnings experience for early users but also strengthens the community's cohesion. In the short term, XPL is expected to become a hotspot for capital chasing; in the long term, it depends on whether Plasma can form differentiated advantages in cross-chain payments, stablecoin settlement, and community governance.

encryption market faces another "waterfall" trend, BTC once fell below 109,000 USD.

On September 26, the cryptocurrency market once again experienced a "waterfall" trend, with BTC briefly falling below $109,000, a drop of over 4% in 24 hours, and ETH's decline exceeding 14% over nearly 7 days. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has fallen back to $3.823 trillion, evaporating over 4.5% in 24 hours. Altcoins are also not escaping the wave of selling, with the TOTAL3 index (the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies excluding BTC and ETH) dropping 9.30% over nearly 7 days. The continued market correction, combined with macroeconomic negativity, is an important driver of this round of decline. This morning, Trump announced a new round of tariff measures: a 25% tariff on imported heavy trucks, a 50% tariff on kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities, and related products, a 30% tariff on upholstered furniture, and a 100% tariff on drugs from companies that have not started building factories in the U.S. All measures will officially take effect on October 1.

High tariff policies have once again intensified market concerns about rising global supply chains and consumer costs, putting pressure on both the stock market and encryption assets. In the short term, the sentiment in the encryption market may continue to lean towards caution, with funds possibly remaining on the sidelines or even withdrawing from risk assets. However, if BTC can stabilize in the range of $108,000 to $110,000, it may still possess the technical conditions for a rebound.

Regulatory authorities focus on encryption strategic reserve companies, possibly involved in insider trading.

On September 26, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) are investigating some listed companies that have adopted "encryption currency strategic reserves." Regulators have noted that these companies experienced abnormal increases in stock prices and trading volumes in the days leading up to the announcement, suggesting insider trading under conditions of information asymmetry.

This survey indicates that regulators are maintaining a high level of vigilance regarding the "listed companies' hoarding of coins". In recent months, the number of companies purchasing Bitcoin in imitation of the MicroStrategy model has been increasing, but some companies may use this news as a tool for capital operations, even creating fluctuations in stock prices. In the short term, such surveys may suppress the hype effect brought by companies announcing their "hoarding" plans, leading to a more rational market reaction to related news. In the long term, if the SEC establishes clearer disclosure norms and constraints, it may actually provide a clearer path for companies to comply with coin purchases, reducing gray areas.
References:

• Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/BTC_USDT
• Farside Investors, https://farside.co.uk/btc/
• Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/ETH_USDT
• Farside Investors, https://farside.co.uk/eth/
• Gate, https://www.gate.com/crypto-market-data
• BlockBeats, https://www.theblockbeats.info/flash/313963
• BlockBeats, https://www.theblockbeats.info/flash/313960
• Coingecoko, https://www.coingecko.com/en/cryptocurrency-heatmap

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