The cost of a Bitcoin 51% Attack is only 6 billion USD? Duke University professor reveals a new security threat to "digital gold"

Despite Bitcoin being trusted by governments and financial institutions and enjoying the reputation of "digital gold," its network security still faces challenges. Following threats from quantum computers, Campbell Harvey, a professor at Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business, raised new concerns in a report: the cost of implementing a 51% attack on the Bitcoin network is relatively low, requiring only about $6 billion. Professor Harvey's analysis pointed out that attackers could profit by opening short positions in the futures market, which sees daily trading volumes of hundreds of billions of dollars, making the theoretical 51% attack economically feasible. This research serves as a reminder to the market that even the longest-standing Bitcoin network does not have impenetrable security.

Two Major Security Threats Facing Bitcoin: Quantum Computing and 51% Attack

Professor Campbell Harvey points out in the abstract of his paper that specifically explores the potential threats of Bitcoin, that besides the long-standing Quantum Computer threat, the 51% attack may be a more immediate concern.

· Advantages of Bitcoin: Professor Harvey acknowledges the advantages of Bitcoin over gold, such as modern alchemy potentially increasing the supply of gold, while the supply cap of Bitcoin is strictly limited to 21,000,000 coins. However, this trust is predicated on the security and immutability of the network.

· The cornerstone of the PoW mechanism: In the PoW mechanism adopted by Bitcoin, miners vote to verify transactions in new blocks using computational power (hash rate). The vast majority of miners choose to verify correct data because the integrity of the network is directly related to the value of Bitcoin and their earnings.

What is a 51% Attack? Why Does It Raise Concerns

A 51% attack refers to a single entity or colluding group gaining control over more than 50% of the total hash rate of the network. Although no one has successfully gained control over the Bitcoin blockchain in the 16 years since its inception, the consequences would be unimaginable if this threat were to materialize.

· Consequences of the attack: After obtaining the majority hash rate, malicious actors will have the ability to alter the Bitcoin ledger records. The main harm is the occurrence of Double-Spending — that is, after paying Bitcoin to a merchant, they can erase that transaction by tampering with the on-chain records, thereby spending the same funds again.

· Historical Cases: Historically, some cryptocurrencies that adopted the PoW mechanism, such as Bitcoin Gold and Ethereum Classic, suffered successful 51% attacks after 2017, each resulting in the theft of cryptocurrencies worth over a million dollars.

· Increasing Difficulty: As the Bitcoin network evolves and mining becomes more specialized, the mining difficulty reached a new high in October 2025, causing the cost of executing a 51% attack to rise year by year. However, Professor Harvey's analysis reveals that the cost is not insurmountable.

6 Billion USD: The Cost of Attack and Profit Path Calculated by Professor Harvey

Professor Harvey calculated that the cost required to achieve one week of dominance over the world's largest PoW network—Bitcoin—is “only” 6 billion dollars, which is less than 0.5% of Bitcoin's total market cap.

· Cost Composition:

Hardware spending (ASIC devices) accounts for approximately 4.6 billion dollars.

The construction cost of the data center is approximately 1.34 billion dollars.

The operating electricity and maintenance costs for a week are approximately 130 million dollars.

· Economic Viability of the Attack: The primary profit motive for attackers is not merely to steal funds, but to exploit their significant impact on prices. Professor Harvey estimates that the daily trading volume of Bitcoin perpetual futures is approximately $60 billion, while the daily trading volume of traditional BTC futures is around $10 billion. Attackers can establish large short positions in these derivatives markets before launching a 51% attack that leads to a price crash. The panic selling triggered by a successful attack would allow them to profit from short positions far exceeding the $6 billion cost of the attack.

Industry Doubts: The Constraints of Physical Difficulty and Market Mechanisms

Although Professor Harvey's economic model is thought-provoking, industry experts have raised doubts about it, arguing that the likelihood of this threat materializing in the real world is extremely low.

· Construction Cycle and Concealment: Critics argue that establishing a super-large mining facility capable of controlling more than 50% of the hash rate would take years, and its enormous scale cannot go unnoticed.

· Constraints of Market Mechanism: Large-scale short positions may be flagged as market manipulation by mainstream CEX and subjected to restrictions. In a panic environment during a 51% attack, trading platforms are likely to take measures to prevent such massive short positions from profiting.

· Industry Insider's Attitude: Matt Prusak, President of American Bitcoin Corp., stated in an interview with Bloomberg that he is not worried about this threat: "My attitude is that the economic feasibility itself kills the theory of 51%. I live in the real world and do not feel anxious about it." He emphasized the significant challenges and risks in practical operations.

Conclusion

Professor Campbell Harvey's latest analysis of the costs of a 51% attack provides a new perspective on the security and long-term value of Bitcoin. Although the degree of decentralization of the Bitcoin network and the continuously increasing mining difficulty make it one of the most secure cryptocurrency networks to date, the $6 billion "potential attack cost" is not out of reach for countries or organizations with vast resources. This compels the industry to continuously pay attention and invest resources to ensure that the economic viability barrier of Bitcoin remains consistently higher than the potential gains from an attack, thus maintaining its status as "digital gold."

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors should make decisions cautiously.