Meme Coin Price Prediction: Whales are crazily selling DOGE, SHIB, PEPE, collectively falling below key levels

Due to the overall impact on the crypto assets market, blue-chip meme coins such as Dogecoin (DOGE), Shiba Inu (SHIB), and PEPE have failed to sustain the rebound momentum since the beginning of the week. Price forecasts for meme coins indicate that the open interest in futures has fallen by 2%, 5%, and 6% respectively, while large wallet investors' holdings continue to decline.

Whale holdings data reveals loss of confidence among large investors

(Source: Santiment)

As we all know, large wallet investors (often referred to as “whales”) determine the trend of Crypto Assets based on their inflow and outflow of funds. Due to a loss of confidence among investors holding sufficient supply, some popular meme coins, such as DOGE, SHIB, and PEPE, are facing the risk of a long-term correction. Santiment data shows that investors holding more than 1 billion DOGE tokens have reduced their holdings from 46.75% of the available supply on October 1 to 46.28%.

Although a 0.47 percentage point decline seems small, in the context of DOGE's massive circulation, it represents billions of dollars in capital withdrawal. Whales usually have deeper market insights and more professional risk management capabilities, and their holdings changes often precede price trends. When whales begin to reduce their holdings, it usually indicates a cautious attitude towards short-term trends.

At the same time, the holding ratio of Shiba Inu investors holding 1 million to 1 billion SHIB has dropped from 2.83% to 2.822%, while investors holding over 1 billion SHIB remain silent, holding 97.16% of the supply. The distribution of SHIB is highly concentrated in the hands of ultra-large whales, with 97.16% of the supply controlled by a very small number of wallets, making SHIB's price extremely susceptible to manipulation by these super whales. Although the reduction in holdings by medium-sized whales is not significant, it is still a negative signal in meme coin price prediction.

On the other hand, the holding proportion of investors with 1 million to 1 billion PEPE has decreased from 3.84% to 3.764%. At the same time, investors holding more than 1 billion PEPE currently control 96.23% of the PEPE supply, up from 96.15% on October 1st. The situation of PEPE is slightly different, as the super-large whales are actually increasing their holdings, while medium-sized whales are reducing their positions. This differentiation may indicate that super whales are accumulating from medium investors in preparation for future maneuvers.

Comparison of Whale Behavior of Three Major Meme Coins:

DOGE: Large whales (1 billion+) reduced their holdings by 0.47%, indicating a decline in overall confidence.

SHIB: Medium whales (1 million to 1 billion) are reducing their positions, while very large whales are remaining flat, indicating a cautious sentiment.

PEPE: Medium-sized whales reduced holdings by 0.076%, while large whales increased holdings by 0.08%, indicating a rise in chip concentration.

Overall, as the market volatility intensifies, the hedging sentiment of meme coin whales has clearly increased. This collective withdrawal is a strong bearish signal in meme coin price predictions.

The fall in open interest in futures contracts reflects the decline in retail interest

(Source: Coinglass)

In general, increased market volatility leads to a sell-off of meme coins, as they are largely influenced by community sentiment and are susceptible to speculative behavior. A decrease in retail interest may signal further pullbacks for meme coins. CoinGlass data shows that the open interest (OI) for DOGE, SHIB, and PEPE futures has decreased by 2%, 5%, and 6%, reaching $1.85 billion, $76.02 million, and $209.67 million, respectively.

The nominal value of all open futures contracts is regarded as OI, and its decline indicates a reduction in risk exposure through deleveraging or closing positions. The 6% drop in PEPE's OI is the most severe among the three, indicating that retail traders are losing confidence in PEPE the fastest. The 5% drop in SHIB is also quite significant, while the 2% drop in DOGE is relatively mild, possibly due to its status as the oldest meme coin providing some stability.

The decline of open interest can be interpreted in two ways. The first is profit-taking, where bulls close their positions during a rebound. The second is forced liquidation or stop-loss exits, where investors with excessive leverage are forced to close their positions as prices fall. Looking at the recent price trend, the rebound on Monday did not sustain, and the prices retracted their gains in the following two days. This pattern suggests that the decrease in OI primarily results from a combination of profit-taking and stop-loss exits.

The price prediction of meme coins must take into account the changes in the derivatives market. When the open interest (OI) decreases and the price falls simultaneously, it indicates an overall reduction in market participation and a loss of investor confidence. This is often a precursor to a trend reversal or accelerated decline. Only when the OI stops falling and begins to rise, accompanied by a price rebound, can the revival of meme coins be confirmed.

The risk market has dampened retail interest in meme coins. The overall market volatility has intensified, causing investors to turn to defensive assets, with high-volatility meme coins being the first to be sold off. This risk-averse sentiment is unlikely to change in the short term unless a strong market catalyst emerges or there is a significant improvement in the macro environment.

DOGE Technical Analysis: $0.1781 Support is the Lifeline

(Source: Trading View)

DOGE failed to hold the psychological support level of $0.2000, leading to a new low on the 4-hour chart and forming a descending trendline with Thursday's high. As of the writing of this article, DOGE fell nearly 1% on Wednesday, continuing the 2.87% decline from the previous day. The ongoing correction is approaching the support level of $0.1781 marked by the low on October 12.

The technical indicators on the 4-hour chart show a bearish shift in trend momentum as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has fallen below its signal line, confirming the decline in bullish momentum. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the same chart is at 45, indicating that selling pressure is gradually increasing, with further correction space before reaching the oversold region.

The potential rebound of DOGE is expected to exceed Tuesday's high of $0.2056 to confirm the trendline breakout, with a target possibly at the R1 pivot point level of $0.2172. However, given the current technical setup and the backdrop of whale reduction, the likelihood of this rebound is relatively low. Meme coin price predictions indicate that if the support at $0.1781 is lost, DOGE could accelerate its fall to $0.15 or even lower.

SHIB Technical Analysis: Falls Below Psychological Barrier Testing Channel Bottom

(Source: Trading View)

As of the time of writing on Wednesday, the trading price of Shiba Inu is below the psychological level of $0.00001000, and it may enter a downward cycle within the descending channel formed on the 4-hour chart. The immediate support level for SHIB is at the S1 pivot point of $0.00000911, just above the bottom trend line of the descending channel.

$0.00001000 is an important psychological barrier for SHIB, and breaking below this integer level would have a huge impact on investor confidence. Many retail investors are accustomed to setting stop-loss and limit orders at integer levels, and when prices fall below these barriers, it often triggers a chain reaction. The momentum indicators on the 4-hour chart suggest downside risk, with the MACD converging with the signal line, indicating a decrease in buying pressure. Additionally, the RSI is at 45 and moving below the midpoint line, showing a decline to neutral levels.

To solidify the uptrend, SHIB should hold above the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.00001073 USD to confirm the channel breakout. The upper resistance levels for SHIB are the R1 and R2 pivot points, which are 0.00001116 USD and 0.00001225 USD, respectively. However, in the current context of whale liquidation and declining open interest, meme coin price predictions tend to suggest that SHIB will continue to test the lower support.

PEPE Technical Analysis: Three-Day Rebound is Brief, Returns to Downtrend

(Source: Trading View)

On the other hand, after a three-day Rebound, PEPE fell slightly by 3% on Tuesday, reopening the pullback phase. As of the writing of this article, PEPE's trading price on Wednesday is below 0.00000700 USD, focusing on the S1 pivot point at 0.00000619 USD. Similar to other blue-chip meme coins, momentum indicators show a decline in buying pressure, with the MACD and signal line showing a bearish crossover, and the RSI at 43.

The situation of PEPE is the weakest among the three major meme coins. The rebound for three consecutive days failed to establish a sustained rise and instead started to give back gains on Tuesday, indicating extremely weak bullish strength. Coupled with the decline in whale holdings and a significant drop in open interest (-6%), PEPE faces the highest risk of further losses. On the positive side, if PEPE exceeds Tuesday's high of $0.00000738, it may extend the upward trend to the R1 pivot point of $0.00000788.

Summary of the Technical Aspects of the Three Major Meme Coins

DOGE: Testing the support at $0.1781, RSI at 45, MACD bearish crossover, rebound target at $0.2172.

SHIB: Falls below the psychological level of 0.00001000 USD, testing the support at 0.00000911 USD, a rebound requires breaking through 0.00001073 USD.

PEPE: falling below 0.00000700 USD, focus on 0.00000619 USD support, rebound target 0.00000788 USD

Overall, the technical and funding aspects of the three major meme coins show a bearish tendency. Price predictions for meme coins suggest that investors should remain cautious and wait for clear bottoming signals before considering entry.