Options Market Dynamics Put selling below spot + call buying above has been the consistent #trend# in recent months. Upside demand has intensified in recent days. This positioning leaves dealers: Short gamma on the upside → forced to buy into rallies. Long gamma on the downside → forced to buy dips. Effect: These hedging flows both extend upside moves and cushion declines, reinforcing stability around key strike zones. #crypto

🤔 What's Next for Bitcoin and Etheriun as Downside Fears Ease Ahead of Fed Rate Cut? Fears of a downside for bitcoin BTC$116,425.80 and ether (ETH) have eased substantially, according to the latest options market data. However, the pace of the next upward move in these cryptocurrencies will largely hinge on the magnitude of the anticipated Fed rate cut scheduled for Sept. 17. BTCs seven-day call/put skew, which measures how implied volatility is distributed across calls versus puts expiring in a week, has recovered to nearly zero from the bearish 4% a week ago, according to data source Amberdata. The 30- and 60-day option skews, though still slightly negative, have rebounded from last week’s lows, signaling a notable easing of downside fears. The skew shows the market's directional bias, or the extent to which traders are more concerned about prices rising or falling. A positive skew suggests a bias towards calls or bullish option plays, while a negative reading indicates relatively higher demand for put options or downside protection. The reset in options comes as bitcoin and ether prices see a renewed upswing in the lead-up to Wednesdays Fed rate decision, where the central bank is widely expected to cut rates and lay the groundwork for additional easing over the coming months. BTC has gained over 4% to over $116,000 in seven days, with ether rising nearly 8% to $4,650. 🔸 BTC could go berserk in case the Fed delivers the surprise 50 bps move. "A surprise 50 bps rate cut would be a massive +gamma BUY signal for ETH, SOL and BTC," Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amberdata, said in an email. "Gold will go absolutely nuts as well." Note that the Deribit listed SOL options already exhibit a strong bullish sentiment, with calls trading at 4-5 volatility premium to puts. Magadini explained that if the decision comes in line with expectations for a 25 bps cut, then a continued calm "grind higher" for BTC looks likely. ETH, meanwhile, may take another week or so to retest all-time highs and convincingly trade above $5,000, he added. #BTC #ETH

Data Shows Decline Expectations for Bitcoin and Ethereum Prices Decreasing! Master Analyst Explains Why He Listed His Expectations Based on the Fed's Decision! Greg Magadini of Amberdata said that a surprise 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Fed could trigger a major rally in Bitcoin and altcoins. Bearish expectations for leading cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ethereum are beginning to fade. At this point, according to the latest options market data, fears of a decline in Bitcoin and Ethereum have significantly weakened. Options market data suggests a recovery in call/put curves. Analysts say that the FED's critical interest rate decision, which will be announced on September 17, is the reason for the decrease in expectations of a decline. However, according to analysts, the pace of the rise in BTC, ETH, and altcoins will largely depend on the size of the Fed's expected interest rate cut. According to CME data, investors are pricing in over a 90% probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4%-4.25%, while a massive 50 basis point move is also possible. Speaking to Coindesk, Amberdata derivatives director Greg Magadini said a surprise 50 basis point rate cut could trigger a major rally. A surprise 50 basis point rate cut would be a huge +gamma BUY signal for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana (SOL). Apart from these, gold will also go crazy.” At this point, Magadini said Deribit SOL options are already showing a strong uptrend, with calls trading at a 4-5 volatility premium over puts. Stating that Bitcoin will rise in any case, Magadini stated that if the FED makes a 25 basis point cut, a calm rise for BTC is likely to continue. Magadini added that it could take up to a week for ETH to retest its all-time highs and see it above $5,000. $BTC {spot}(BTCUSDT) $ETH {spot}(ETHUSDT) $SOL {spot}(SOLUSDT)

The human sensory range is a narrow slice of the physical world. For vision, humans detect only electromagnetic waves within approximately 430–790 terahertz, corresponding to the visible light spectrum of violet through red. Outside this range lie ultraviolet light, X-rays, gamma rays, infrared, microwaves, and radio waves—phenomena invisible to us but detectable with instruments. Similarly, human hearing is restricted to frequencies between about 20 hertz and 20 kilohertz, with sensitivity declining with age, particularly for higher frequencies. This limitation means most of the universe’s light and sound information is imperceptible to humans without technological aid. Many animals far exceed these ranges: bees can see ultraviolet patterns on flowers, snakes can detect infrared heat signatures, and elephants communicate with infrasonic rumbles below human hearing. These comparisons underscore how human senses evolved to meet survival needs, not to capture the full spectrum of reality.

CATTEA 📢BTCat Daily | Aug 20, 2025 — EU/US Session Update Markets stay choppy as BTC holds near 115,000 while ETH trades just above 4,200. Both sit close to Gamma-heavy liquidity zones, meaning sharp moves can be triggered by thin order books. BTC view Rebounds toward 116,800–117,200 look like short setups. A break below 114,700 could send price into the 113,800–114,500 buffer zone. Watch ETF flows as selling pressure has picked up. ETH view ETH faces a tug-of-war: 4,200–4,300 is a mixed Gamma band, often causing whipsaws. Rebounds into 4,320–4,350 may fade, while the 4,176 support remains the key line in the sand. Risk Triggers US session (13:00–15:00 UTC): CME flows can drive volatility. If no breakout

The short positions feast is still ongoing! It's only a matter of time before ETH falls below 4000. Thinking about buying the dip now? Be careful not to be devoured clean by the market maker! In a bull market, sharp falls are common, but this time the drop was too severe – retail investors haven't even reacted to shout in pain, and blood has already splattered onto the rooftop. 1. This morning it spiked to 4060, but it was just a gentle trap set by the market maker. This morning, ETH experienced a flash crash down to 4060, seemingly quickly rebounding to 4100. But remember: the deeper the spike, the more feeble the rebound! The market maker is testing the bottom line of the bulls, enticing you to buy the dip. Once you are fully invested, they will shut the door on you. The daily chart shows no significant rebound, and the short positions are clearly aiming to squeeze out the last drop of blood. 2. The technical aspect has completely collapsed, and the short positions are attacking fiercely. The daily chart shows a bearish engulfing pattern combined with a significant decline in volume: the selling pressure at high levels is like a mountain pressing down, after the MACD dead cross, the green bars keep getting longer, and the RSI is sliding low, unable to break even 40. This is not a correction; it is clearly a slaughterhouse for short positions. Key support has all been breached: 4300 and 4150 have consecutively fallen, and 4000 is just a psychological barrier; the real "coffin board" is at 3800! Once it falls below this level, there will be no effective support below, directly plunging towards the abyss of 3600. 3. Why is it said that 4000 must be broken? The market maker's liquidation assembly line has already started. Long leverage concentration camp: $1.2 billion worth of options contracts have accumulated around 4000, and a price spike will trigger "Gamma squeeze," causing liquidations to snowball like an avalanche. Institutions are fleeing overnight: ETF giants like BlackRock have seen a net outflow for 8 consecutive days, on-chain whale holdings have plummeted by 12%, smart money has already left, and only retail investors are still dancing at the ICU door. 4. buy the dip? You can't outplay the market maker's "layered tactics" Those institutions that shout it's a healthy pullback are actually waiting to pick up bargains with buy orders placed at 4075-4150! When it really hits 4000, they'll slam the market from the other side. You think you are buying the dip, but what the market makers want is your principal. #杰克逊霍尔会议##加密市场回调#

🤔 #BTC# Highest level in the 25 delta option skew since March 2023. Latest correction appears to be amplified by a "reverse gamma squeeze" as dealers need to sell $BTC to cover the increasing demand for puts. #crypto#

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🚨🎯 $ENPH pulled together 2 green days to flip the week from red to green. Im watching 35 which is a huge gamma level and also the next resistance point. CRSI and G.O.D flow support upside to end the week but premarket levels have to remain the same to validate long thesis. 🎯🚨 ⚪️ 32.5 Pivot 🟢 Over 32.5 targeting 35 🔴 Below 32.5 targeting 31.5 then 29.8 ⚫️ Supportive flow must be present premarket and 15m after open to enter any position.

Ethereum Price News: Ethereum Hits $4,300 Before Pullback — Traders Eye $4,400 as Next Milestone AI Summary Key Takeaways ETH briefly touched $4,300 before easing to $4,270 amid profit-taking. $4,400 remains the next major upside target, supported by short gamma positioning in options markets. Strong open interest and elevated funding rates suggest bullish momentum but raise risk of liquidation cascades. On-chain data shows whale accumulation slowing near $4,300 as sellers defend key resistance. Ethereum (ETH) surged to $4,300 early Saturday before slipping back to $4,270, as traders locked in gains after a week-long rally driven by derivatives positioning and broader crypto market strength. The move marks ETH’s highest price since March 2024 and comes amid heightened speculation over a potential “quick-fire” rally to $4,400. According to Amberdata, the net gamma exposure of dealers in the Deribit-listed ETH options market remains negative between $4,000 and $4,400. This configuration forces market makers to buy ETH as its price rises to hedge exposure — a feedback loop that can accelerate upside moves. The gamma profile flips positive near $4,400, making that level a likely “price magnet” for traders.

The signal coming from the options market indicates the possibility that Ethereum will continue to rise, with a short term target at the level of 4,400 USD. Gamma – The Index of "Hidden" Price Volatility Management, the indicator that analysts pay attention to here is Net Gamma Exposure (, the overall level of net gamma exposure ) for market makers ( on the Deribit platform for ETH. Gamma is a key indicator in options trading, reflecting the rate of change of the option's delta as the price of the underlying asset fluctuates. In other words, gamma shows the degree of "sensitivity" of the contract to changes in the price of Ether. The mechanism of short gamma and the self-expanding price effect When dealers enter a short gamma state, they are forced to buy the underlying asset when the price rises and sell when the price falls to hedge risks. This randomly amplifies fluctuations in the same direction as the market. Under normal conditions, a dealer profits from the difference between buying and selling )bid-ask spread( and always tries to maintain a neutral state in price )delta-neutral(. However, when they are in short gamma, their hedging behavior can turn into a driving force pushing the price further. The zone of $4,000 – $4,400: Accelerating thrust According to Amberdata, there is currently a significant number of short gamma positions concentrated between the strike levels )strike( of 4,000 USD and 4,400 USD. When ETH breaks the 4,000 USD mark, traders will start buying ETH for hedging, creating a "feedback effect" )positive feedback(, which will lead to a faster price increase. The nearest target of this impulse is 4,400 USD – the point where the gamma structure turns positive )positive gamma(. At this time, traders will trade against the market to curb price volatility. This makes 4,400 USD a "price magnet" )price magnet( reasonable for the current bull market. Analysis from analysts Greg Magadini – director of derivatives at Amberdata – stated: "If market forces are strong enough to break through 4,000 USD, we will see dealers become net buyers of ETH at higher prices, which may lead to a rapid rise to 4,400 USD – the next big gamma residue zone." Conclusion Signals from the options market implicitly indicate that ETH may continue to rise rapidly in the short term. Investors should closely monitor the 4,000 USD mark, as breaking this barrier could allow the 4,400 USD zone to be reached in a short time due to the amplification effect from dealers' hedging strategies. $ETH {spot})ETHUSDT(

Analysts point out that Ethereum could see its price rapidly rise to $4400 due to the negative Gamma state of the derivatives market. The negative Gamma accumulation by market makers in the $4000 to $4400 range may trigger a self-reinforcing positive feedback loop, further driving the price pump.

Deribit Data: Notional value of nearly 5 billion USD in BTC and ETH Options expiring in half an hour On August 8, news reported that today (Beijing time 16:00) the market will face the expiration of nearly 5 billion USD in BTC and ETH Options. According to the latest data from Deribit, as of 16:00, the total open interest in Bitcoin (BTC) options reached 34,977 contracts. The total open interest in Ethereum options is 223,592 contracts. Among them, the open interest for Bitcoin call options is 14,237 contracts, while for put options it is 20,740 contracts, resulting in a Put/Call Ratio of 1.46. The notional value of the corresponding contracts is nearly 4.087 billion USD, and the current maximum pain price for BTC is 116,000 USD. The open interest for Ethereum call options is 104,508 contracts, while the open interest for put options is 119,084 contracts, resulting in a Put/Call Ratio of 1.14, corresponding to a notional value of 876 million USD. The current maximum pain price for ETH is 3,675 USD. In summary, from the perspective of the Put/Call Ratio in the options market, current market participants have a generally bearish outlook for both BTC options and ETH options in the short term. As the options delivery date approaches, market participants (especially those who need to adjust their positions to avoid unfavorable outcomes) may increase trading activity. It will also exacerbate the volatility risk of "Vega value" or "Gamma value", leading to larger fluctuations in the price of the underlying asset than usual. Market participants should pay attention to risk management and implement appropriate hedging strategies! #Deribit # Options expiration #比特币 # ETH

$SPX 🎯Premarket Bias- 🐂Bullish positioning due to decreasing volatility and stacked +Gamma. Uncertainty still persist but seems like traders are not concerned at this point. No trade deals completed so any related news could obviously turn the markets in either direction. $VIX - $DXY - #10Y = Risk On📈 ⚪️ 6352 - PDH Pivot 🟢 If over 6370 1st major gex level then long targeting gex high at 6400. 🔴If 6370 fails then targeting pivot at 6352 ⚫️Adjusted gex throughout the day will determine any chaged to initial plan

[August 6th US Stock Options Leaderboard] $iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF(IBIT)$ leads today's Call trading list ($141 million), with two large transactions of 35 C each exceeding $68 million. If you believe Bitcoin still has upside potential, you could establish a September 60/70 bull spread. $Palantir(PLTR)$ ranks second in the Call leaderboard (with a net amount of 8.88 million USD), but the directional bias is bearish: net selling reached 7.58 million USD, with a buy-sell ratio of 0.7:1. After the earnings report's positive results were realized, the bulls began to reduce their positions. It is advisable to use a 9 September 180/190 reverse ratio spread to play for a second increase at a low cost while limiting Gamma risk. $Lulu Lemon(LULU($ All-day Put transactions totaled 103 million, with a net purchase of 3.73 million USD. If you're concerned about the subsequent performance of consumer stocks, you can establish a September 190/180 Bear Put spread to hedge against downside risk at a limited cost. 👇 Click on the poster to view the complete list, feel free to share your layout ideas! #OptionsFlow

$Circle(CRCL)$ 【Circle's financial report is coming soon, how to use Options to control risks without missing out?】 CRCL has recently pulled back and has returned to the support level near $150. The first earnings report post-listing is set to be released on August 12, but the market seems a bit too calm: the 30-day implied volatility is only 78%, and the IV Rank is less than 10%. This indicates that this is a report that has not yet been "seriously priced in". 📌 If you're paying attention to market events, now is a window for positioning in volatility: ▶️ Make volatility: Buy 150 Straddle expiring on 8/15, with a cost of about 21 USD. As long as the stock price moves ±14% on earnings report day, you could potentially enjoy both Gamma and Vega benefits. Suitable for friends betting on a "blowout" earnings report. ▶️ Bearish protection: For those who are bearish but want to control drawdowns, you can do a 150/130 Put Spread, costing less than 6 dollars, to obtain stable returns with limited risk. ▶️ Long Bias Protection: Do you think the financial report may bring surprises? You can do a 150/165 Call Spread, the idea is similar, but the direction is opposite, and it's also a small investment to gain upside potential. 🗣️ What do you think about this financial report? Can CRCL stop the decline and rebound, or will it break down directly? Feel free to discuss in the comments. #Circle

#CandyDrop Airdrop Event 6.0# #White House Crypto Report# Bitcoin is now within the CME gap zone between USD 113,870 and 117,000. Price movement shows potential to fill that gap before further rebound. Analysts identify the USD 110,000–112,000 zone as an ideal accumulation area if the correction continues, with several technical indicators neutral to bearish in the short term. 🔮 Price Outlook – Climbing Market Share? Some bullish predictions indicate the price could reach USD 125,000–133,300 by the end of August 2025, supported by ETF inflows and a decrease in reserves on exchanges. The market fractal "tick-tock" signals the potential peak of the bull market in October 2025, with a target projection between USD 130,000 and USD 150,000. 🏦 Institutional Sentiment & Regulation Demand from institutional investors remains strong, even though the domestic US OTC fund index is starting to weaken. Long-term holders tend to hold and are not making significant profit-taking at the moment. The pro-cryptography policy of the Trump administration includes the appointment of supportive regulatory officials, as well as the existence of a strategic US Bitcoin reserve, further strengthening institutional adoption and market confidence. 🧭 Risk & Strategy Summary Factor Potential Impact US tariffs / geopolitics Can trigger selling pressure and high volatility corrections The Fed's market fund policy is still considering interest rate cuts; short-term uncertainty remains high. Market volatility & gamma effect Can cause price consolidation before further breakout above USD 130,000

🚀 Strong Market Momentum + Technical Trade Opportunities 📌 #Bitcoin##( $BTC ): – Recently tested its all-time high (ATH) at $123K; now consolidating between $116K–$118K. Dealer gamma around the $120K–$120.5K zone is suppressing volatility, signaling potential resistance in the current trend. However, the $115K–$112K range remains a strong support zone. 👉 A potential upward move of 6–8% toward the $125K–$128K band is still on the table by November.Key Levels: $115K (Support), $120K (Resistance), $123K–$134K (Long-Term Target) 📌 #Ethereum ( $ETH ): – Achieved a massive 48% rally in July, mainly driven by institutional ETF demand, infrastructure upgrades, and broader enterprise adoption. – On the daily chart, the $3,300 level has flipped from resistance into support; a Golden Cross has formed between the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. – RSI is around 75, indicating overbought territory; a short-term correction is possible. However, for a sustained trend break, ETH would need to fall below $3,500. 🎯 Ethereum shows strong potential to surge above $4,000. If momentum holds, the $4,400–$4,500 zone could be the next target.

Behind the high odds: Is it the "fool" who watches the chain quickly, or the "smart person" who trusts slowly? Squirrel on the 7.2, someone said: "Gamma has invested in ten projects, and it might have gone to zero on eleven of them," made a trade under 20 dollars to now 2100 dollars, 100x. On July 19th, someone said about the gold alkane: "The reserved ones can’t rise, think about the runes." Who would have thought that pressing down at 5u per set could sell for 600 after two days, 100x. On the 25th, when the drip was happening, someone said: "No one is willing to pay for me in the text," and then after 9 gas, the progress reached 40% before getting on board, but was stuck at 30 gas, while those who were at 1-3 gas could basically achieve a 10x return. Even last night’s 💩, someone said: "Whoever makes a joke about me, I’ll get back at them," but even with 8 gas spent, the current price can still double. Even more abstractly, the recently so-called brc2.0 baskets, basically only the PUNK basket is losing. Of course, what I mentioned above is all under ideal circumstances; the reality might not be so good. It’s possible that it was sold off early, or it’s still staked, but at least it’s guaranteed to have made a profit. A relaxed market without competition is due to fewer players and a smaller market cap, with funds concentrated, which creates such high odds. If Player P enters the market, I believe that in terms of both funds and my ability to track the chain, I wouldn’t be able to compete with them. Let's cherish this non-competitive time right now, as there will definitely come a period in the future where many projects will be competing with each other daily, completely extinguishing this round of the market. That will be the time for profit-taking, and it will also be the moment when these clever people can shout "btc doesn’t need an ecosystem" 🤣.

It looks like a fun end to the week. Galaxy selling $10B? In BTC plus another large options expiry. $15B options expiry hitting BTC ($12.3B) and ETH ($2.7B) today @ 8:00 UTC. Max pain around $112k BTC / $2.8k ETH. Big gamma zone at $115-120k BTC and $3-3.2k ETH, expect choppiness as ppl hedge. HYPE OI still near highs ($14.7B) and tons of trapped longs at ~$40 support. Funding flat, watching for negative flip. If that happens and $40 holds, could rip. I’m impatient started adding to my longterm spot bags. Buy the red. Wknd will be interesting after this week and heading into Fed.

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On the expiration date of the 20250725 Options, the iv soared. Combined with the 3800 gamma long positions, it is estimated that ETH will find it difficult to effectively break through 3800 before the 25th.

The article "Revealing Market Making Algorithms: Market Stabilization or Dumping? How Market Makers Use Borrowed Coins" uncovers the core logic and strategies of the common "call option" model used by crypto world market makers, where the project party provides tokens and market makers provide stablecoins while holding options. When market makers acquire tokens, they will immediately sell a large amount to meet funding needs and achieve risk-neutral hedging, continuously engaging in Arbitrage through price differentials and Gamma.

According to Coin World news, on July 20 (UTC+8), the article revealed the core logic and strategies of the "call option" model commonly used by market makers. In this model, the project party provides tokens, and market makers provide stablecoins for market making and hold options. When market makers obtain tokens, they will immediately sell a large amount to meet funding needs and achieve risk-neutral hedging, while continuously profiting through arbitrage from price differences, Gamma Scalping, and dynamic hedging of option fluctuations. The author pointed out that this strategy is not a deliberate dumping by market makers, but a rational choice made after precise calculations.

rumor watch: hearing that nasdaq just submitted an update around the ishares ethereum trust that ct is spinning as "staking soon".[ not confirmed] read that again zero clear language that authorizes staking. treat the staking headline as speculation until sec posts explicit approval why the rumor is explosive anyway: every us spot eth etf launched without staking because of custody, tax, and securities gray zones. that leaves ~3 percent native yield (varies) sitting idle inside billions of dollars of institutional $eth exposure investors have been vocal that yield matters, and early eth funds have already started pulling meaningful inflows even without staking if regulators crack that door open, product design and capital flows change fast remember the solana moment: $eth is orders of magnitude bigger current spot eth fund flows trail btc by a wide margin; a yield-enabled wrapper narrows that gap because allocators can pitch "blue chip crypto + native income" to committees that crave carry i’ve said before i could see eth flows climbing from the ~teens share of btc flows toward a high-teens or even ~20% range if yield is packaged cleanly over time. that flow multiple alone re-rates the asset. opinion, not a model price frames i care about if the market believes staking-enabled inflows are coming: > short window relief → reclaim $4k handle (psych + options gamma) > narrative repricing → $5k+ into pre-approval front-run > full etf + staking live into cycle blowoff → $6k to $10k band not crazy if btc holds macro. none of this is guaranteed. sizing matters (targets are my own read; see yield + flow backdrop above) last thing when we called the sol staking etf bullish for memes, it wasn’t the etf itself. it was the liquidity knock-on. tradfi buys the index. degen rotation chases beta. same reflex loop could set up in eth land if staking switches on. line up your watchlist now so you’re not panic-bridging later > not advice > rumor until it isn’t how are you positioned for a yield-enabled $ETH world? drop takes below

Daily Briefing of the Chinese Community ===== Release Date: 2025-07-17 Overall market sentiment ===== Hot Topics ===== • ETH continues to show strength after breaking the key resistance level of 3400 USD, with most traders raising their targets to 4000 USD, believing that the market has not accelerated in the context of historical highs in contract positions, indicating significant room for growth ahead. • The RR indicator (Risk Reversal) has sparked discussions as a window for observing market sentiment. Some traders believe that a positive RR reflects bullish sentiment in the market, while others question its predictive ability and actual trading value. • Seller strategy faces challenges in a one-sided upward trend, traders discuss coping with high volatility environments by adjusting DDH thresholds, controlling Gamma exposure, and employing end-of-day double selling.

[SBET becomes the "largest ETH holder", a feast for long positions or the eve of a pullback?] SharpLink Gaming(SBET) continued to increase its positions, surpassing the Ethereum Foundation to become the largest holder of ETH with a position of 280,706 ETH. Last week, the company raised approximately $413 million through the ATM mechanism, more than half of which has been used to buy coins and participate in staking, while the remaining funds are still awaiting deployment. In just one week, the stock price has increased by over 60%, and its market capitalization has expanded, with the label "Ethereum version of MSTR" trending. The sentiment in the options market is even more heated: yesterday's transaction volume was 170,000 contracts, which is 2.8 times the 30-day average; the 30-day implied volatility surged to 175%, placing it in the historical 95th percentile; the Put/Call transaction volume ratio is only 0.31, indicating that funds are flooding into the bullish side. The deep in-the-money Calls with a strike price of $25–30 expiring this Friday (July 18) account for over 40% of the total, while Max Pain is at $17.5. If the stock price or ETH experiences a pullback, long positions may face Gamma pressure. #ETH

α RESEARCH 🚀 Options gamma pin at $123k holds Bitcoin in a tight range after new ATH

According to news from CoinWorld, on July 11 (UTC+8), the Greeks.Live Chinese briefing pointed out that the price of Bitcoin has broken through a new high of $118,000, while Ethereum has also successfully surpassed the $3,000 mark, showing strong bullish sentiment in the market. Traders generally believe this is a rare large market movement and expect the price of Ethereum to potentially challenge $4,000 or even higher. Against this backdrop, the buyer strategy for options at expiration has performed prominently, with a single investment yielding returns of 13 to 17 times. Technical analysis indicates that Ethereum is currently experiencing wide fluctuations between $2,800 and $3,200, with the negative gamma effect of the Gamma Ex indicator intensifying, suggesting that the market may experience significant fluctuations in the future rather than a single trend.

According to a report from 深潮 TechFlow on July 11, Greeks.Live announced in a Chinese brief that Bitcoin has broken its historical high, reaching around $118,000, and Ethereum has successfully surpassed the $3,000 mark, leading to a highly bullish market sentiment. Traders generally believe this is a once-in-month opportunity, with expectations that ETH will challenge the $4,000 target or even higher. In this market scenario, the strategy of options buyers at the end date has been highly successful, with individual returns reaching 13-17 times. Technical analysis shows that ETH is currently in a wide fluctuation range of $2,800-$3,200, with the Gamma Ex indicator showing a negative gamma amplification trend, indicating that there may be significant fluctuations in the future rather than a one-sided trend.

Daily Briefing of the Chinese Community ===== Release Date: 2025-07-11 Overall market sentiment ===== Hot topics ===== • Expiry Options Buyer Strategy Achieves Great Success: Traders boldly bought expiry CALLs during periods of low IV, with single transaction returns reaching 13-17 times, proving that in highly volatile markets, the explosive power of options buyers far exceeds that of contract trading. • Dual Selling Strategy Risk Management Discussion: In the face of breakthrough market conditions, sellers need to address the gamma maturity issue through rolling in-the-money options or contract delivery, emphasizing the importance of small positions with high frequency and toughing it out until mean reversion. • Market technical analysis shows that ETH is in a wide range fluctuation zone of $2800-$3200, the Gamma Ex indicator shows a negative gamma amplification trend, indicating that there will be significant volatility in the future rather than a one-sided trend.

BTC & ETH surged aggressively early this morning, hitting intra-day highs ahead of today's massive $5B options expiry at 8 UTC (3 AM CT / 4 AM EST), driven by bearish options positioning, forced short-covering, and heavy gamma hedging. BTC: ~$118.3K peak (max pain $108K, Put/Call ratio 1.06 bearish skew), ~$570M shorts liquidated ETH: ~$3,016 peak (max pain $2.6K, Put/Call ratio 1.11 bearish skew), ~$200M shorts liquidated Bearish options positioning intensified the short squeeze as dealers aggressively hedged exposure when prices exceeded bearish strike levels. (fyi: Max pain = options strike price at which the largest number of contracts expire worthless) - Record institutional ETF inflows (~$1.5B BTC/ETH combined July 10) - Risk-on sentiment driven by Trump TACO scenario, dovish Fed pivot Idk man, low liquidity weekend could be when onchain takes over and pushes this over. Let's see how open goes and what happens at close. But would be the perfect time to rally and continue marching the gates of olympus.

[Project Interpretation] Tren Finance: The first AI-driven stablecoin lending protocol on the entire chain. Tren Finance is a stablecoin lending protocol fully autonomously managed by AI, with the core goal of redefining the lending logic of DeFi through a set of smart agent systems that require no human governance intervention. This protocol is doing something very cool but also very serious: 👉 Allow any asset on the chain to borrow liquidity, including LPs, yield certificates, NFTs, and even tokens that have not yet been unlocked; 👉 Real-time adjustment of risk parameters to eliminate the issues of human intervention delays in traditional protocols; 👉 Fully automated, operating around the clock, with 0 governance delay and 0 proposal process, the lending system runs autonomously like an operating system. 01｜Why is Tren different? ❌ The Dilemma of Traditional DeFi Lending The lending systems of major protocols like Aave and Compound actually have a few "old issues": • The range of asset support is narrow, and many assets cannot be used as collateral; •Parameter adjustments rely on governance votes, with a slow update cycle; •Once there is a sharp fluctuation, bad debts or large-scale liquidations can easily occur. In the current DeFi space with over 8 billion dollars locked, less than 30% of the assets can actually be used for collateral lending. A large number of LPs, yield certificates, and NFTs are all in a "sleeping state." 02｜Core Innovation of Tren: Peer-to-Agent Lending Model Tren has abandoned the variable of "human" and introduced AI intelligent agents: Users no longer make requests to the protocol and wait for governance approval, but interact directly with the AI agent, which evaluates, disburses loans, and collects interest. This mechanism called Peer-to-Agent is being implemented on-chain for the first time: •User submits assets; •AI evaluates asset value, volatility, and borrower on-chain reputation in real-time; •If approved, disburse immediately; •If the risk is too great, refuse to execute. The currently featured AI agent "Malone" has already achieved the recognition and lending of "non-standard assets" such as NFTs, LPs, and locked assets. It is also the first intelligent agent with an independent wallet that can autonomously issue transactions. 03｜stablecoin $XY: The True All-Chain Native Debt Asset The native stablecoin $XY of Tren is a debt token issued through collateralized asset borrowing (CDP model), which has: •Over-collateralization guarantee; •LayerZero's OFT standard construction, native cross-chain transfer across the entire chain; •Instead of relying on a "1:1 redemption" mechanism, it stabilizes the peg through dynamic liquidity management; • Can obtain profits through various methods such as mining, providing liquidity, and staking in insurance pools. 04｜AI Agent System: Automatic Adjustment + Multi-Point Collaboration Currently, Tren has launched over 20 independent smart agent modules, covering: •Interest Rate Adjustment (Interest Optimizer) •Liquidation Predictor •Collateral Manager •Risk Pricing (Risk Analyzer) •Automated Arbitrage (Arb Seeker) These AIs will: •Automatically adjust stablecoin fees during market volatility; •Detect real liquidability of collateral to prevent bad debts; •Real-time liquidation of invalid collateral to protect system stability; • Use 90% of all income from the protocol to buy back TREN coins. 05｜Why is the TREN coin worth paying attention to? TREN is the core value-bearing tool of the entire protocol, using the veToken locking model: •90% of all revenue will be used for TREN buyback + burn or dividends (decided by veTREN voting); •All income generated from all agency activities (minting/arbitrage/liquidation) flows back to TREN; • No additional token issuance, clear deflationary structure; •The longer the lock-up period, the higher the veTREN weight, and the more rewards you will receive. Currently, the fully diluted valuation of $TREN is only about $10M FDV, which is 6 to 13 times lower compared to HeyAnon ($69M) and Wayfinder ($131M), but its technological maturity and system complexity are far greater than those two. 06 | Market Space and Business Model Market of Services: Over $20B of underutilized asset types (NFTs, LPs, yield notes, locked assets, etc.) Profit Model: •Minting fees, interest income, liquidation arbitrage •Flash loan fee •B2B Risk Management API Authorization Fee •Hooks automatic execution strategy call fee •Cross-chain transaction fee These revenues will constitute the buyback pool for TREN, providing a continuous accumulation of value for long-term holders. 07 | Team and Development Progress •Core members come from protocols such as MakerDAO, Ajna, Wirex, Binance, etc.; • Audits completed for multiple companies including Omniscia and Halborn; • Strategic cooperation with Mode, Gamma, Turtle Club, etc.; •Echo fundraising round completed, selected for Redstone 25 under 25; •The total value of community user assets has now exceeded $50M (tracked by DeBank). 08 | In summary: Tren Finance is using AI to take over protocol governance, completely transforming the lending logic of DeFi from "human governance" to "machine governance." It is not just a new protocol, but a self-evolving financial infrastructure system. Behind every borrowing operation, there are AI agents operating at high frequency, assessing risks, adjusting parameters, automatically liquidating, and repurchasing coins. The next paradigm of DeFi will be a world that is "Agent-native", and Tren is the first to step into it. If you want to follow the project: •Official website: •Dapp： •Document: •Twitter: •Telegram: •Research Blog:

Gamma Squeeze incoming?

What is the limit of Bitcoin? Various institutions have different views on the "target" for the peak of this bull market. Standard Chartered's digital asset research team expects Bitcoin to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, citing the acceleration of U.S. investors reallocating from sovereign assets to non-sovereign assets; Bernstein analysts, on the other hand, are optimistic about reaching $200,000 by the end of next year based on the approval of ETFs and friendly regulatory expectations, and predict it could reach $500,000 by 2029. Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, stated at the Davos Forum that once sovereign wealth funds and institutions begin to allocate Bitcoin on a small scale, the price of Bitcoin is expected to rise to $700,000, highlighting the premium effect of large institutional allocations. Looking at the historical four-year halving cycle, the previous two peaks were approximately $20,000 and $60,000. If we estimate using the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) model, the reasonable upper limit for this cycle is in the range of $200,000 to $500,000, which roughly aligns with the expectations of the aforementioned institutions. The NVT model emphasizes the combined effect of the reduction in issuance rate and the growth in network utility value, providing a valuation anchor for this bull market. Of course, the options market also expresses more aggressive bets: the trading volume of call options with a strike price of $300,000 on Deribit has surged to the second highest, reflecting some traders' expectations of prices "entering unknown territory" and the risk of gamma squeeze. Asset attributes and global political economic impact Although the name "digital gold" has become deeply ingrained, Bitcoin still shows a high positive correlation with growth assets when bond yields soar or the stock market is under pressure. After the surge in government bond yields, Bitcoin briefly fell over 3% to $106,307, validating its weakness as a traditional safe-haven asset. From an asset allocation perspective, institutional investors are viewing Bitcoin as a "growth + hedge" composite tool: with expectations that the Federal Reserve may find it difficult to significantly cut interest rates due to inflation and fiscal deficit pressures, Bitcoin has become a candidate asset for hedging against dollar depreciation and inflation. However, in the short term, its high volatility characteristics also bring significant drawdown risks, requiring a dynamic balance with stocks and bonds. At the geopolitical level, the signs of marginalization in China-U.S. relations are increasing, and the risk appetite in the U.S. market is recovering, injecting speculative buying into Bitcoin; the EU's MiCA and Japan's flexible licensing system also form a contrast, while China's continued strict control exacerbates the competition for funds in the "regulatory gaps" of the U.S. and Europe. In the future, the price of Bitcoin will continue to be jointly influenced by the U.S. fiscal deficit, monetary policy divergence, the China-U.S. game, and changes in the global regulatory environment. In conclusion, although this round of Bitcoin bull market is expected to continue in the range of $200,000 to $500,000, there are risks of retracement and volatility. Keeping an eye on macro policy dynamics and regulatory developments is key to grasping investment opportunities in the next phase. #Gate广场征文活动第一期##Gate广场创作者星火计划#

[July 9th US Stock Options Leaderboard] $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Daily call transactions reached $175 million, with a net buying pressure of about $6 million; the 30-day implied volatility is 36.3%, with an IV Rank of 7.7%. As the market cap first touches $4 trillion, the historically low IV suggests there is still room for "catch-up Gamma" in the future. $Oracle(ORCL)$ Call:Put transaction volume reached 815:1, yet there was a net sell of 22.89 million USD in Calls, a typical "high position sell Call to collect Theta" hedge. After the stock price reached new highs, the volatility surface continued to rise. If Gamma declines again, a technical cooling window may be approaching. $Palantir(PLTR)$ 140 Call for September 25th at $65.69 million crowned; after doubling in stock price this year, it still reached a new high, with a P/S ratio of about 114× causing valuation divergence; on the options side, locking in positions first and then lifting, volatility is rising, short-term may enter a high volatility sideways pattern, and the diagonal convergence strategy is worth paying attention to. Overall, the enthusiasm for the AI main line has not diminished, but the misalignment between valuation and volatility has become increasingly evident. For more details, see the poster, and feel free to share your insights in the comments! #OptionsFlow

【July 8th US Stock Options Leaderboard】 Tesla's total options today amount to approximately $165 million: call options at $92.8 million (56%), put options at $71.7 million (44%), with net selling pressure on both sides, B:S ≈ 0.9, indicating strong hedging between long and short positions. Over the past three trading days, the stock price has fallen from $317 to $297, a decline of more than 6%, coinciding with Musk's announcement of the creation of the "America Party" and Wedbush's call for the board to "set rules". TSLA's near-month IV is approximately 60%, but based on the IV Rank (approximately 25%) and HV (approximately 72%), it is not extremely high. The main players have simultaneously sold Call/Put options this time, which seems more like locking in profits or rolling positions, rather than simply shorting Vega to suppress volatility. Amazon's bullish amount today is 84.7 million, accounting for 94%; two near-month 150 Call orders of 35.8 million/35.3 million, both listed at MID, clearly indicate that the main force is preparing for short-term positioning for Prime Day. Adobe Analytics expects online consumption from July 8-11 to reach 23.8 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of +28%. If the data is realized, a stock price breakthrough of 230 USD may trigger a Gamma squeeze; if it falls short of expectations, high IV (≈38%) provides a safety cushion for sellers. 👉 The poster also includes extreme buy-sell ratios such as RH and TTD, feel free to leave comments for discussion! #OptionsFlow

They thought the big Jul 4 options expiry would create a gamma squeeze and send BTC to $120k so we just moved some old wallets around

[COIN rushes to the on-chain Primary Market, how far can this move go?] Coinbase recently acquired the token issuance platform Liquifi to integrate it into Prime and create a compliant version of "Launchpad." The ambition behind this move is clear: not only to facilitate secondary market matching and custody but also to pocket the "token issuance service fees" from the primary market, binding the entire lifecycle of startup teams. The external environment has also provided COIN with space for a new narrative: in June, the Senate passed the GENIUS Stablecoin Act, and in mid to late July, the House scheduled "Crypto Week" for discussions. If it truly materializes, COIN's revenue-sharing model with Circle's USDC will receive federal endorsement, and just the interest and fee sharing from stablecoins could generate a new cash flow. On July 3rd, options market data shows that smart money has started to bet: over $90 million was swept into the July 215/220 C in a single day, with a total Call/Put transaction volume ratio of 17.6:1, indicating a strong directional betting sentiment. Currently, COIN's implied volatility IV at 63% is at a historical low, with a rank of only 28%, which means that the cost of going long is low and the leverage elasticity is high. Even though Max Pain remains at $330, the actual stock price has stabilized above $350, with high OI concentrated in near-month contracts, presenting potential Gamma squeeze opportunities. #coinbase

🌙 Tonight to tomorrow morning BTC short-term outlook: Technical signals frequently appear at the top area, and frequent fluctuations are the main theme. 1. 15-minute level: Short-term selling pressure is gradually increasing. EMA moving averages (5-13-34-55): Currently, the price has fallen below EMA5 and EMA13, stuck in the range between EMA34 and EMA55, forming a "short death cross + mid-term unbroken" structure, indicating that the short-term rise momentum has already weakened. MACD (12,26,9): The MACD bars can clearly weaken from a high position, with DIFF and Signal tending towards a prior crossover state. If the upcoming K-line MACD turns green or confirms a death cross, it will form an elastic signal, releasing short-term pullback pressure. RSI and KDJ: The 15-minute RSI has just dropped below the 50 midline to around 45, indicating a neutral to weak bias; the KDJ is in the overbought zone, turning at a high level, showing warning signals—especially after K exceeds 90 and J value retracts, suggesting a possible pullback after the end of the high-level fluctuations. TD Sequential: High frequency triggers the Sell Setup phase, close to the top signal "TD9". Once formed, the short-term top probability increases. Conclusion: The 15-minute chart has shown a short-term top lurking structure. If it falls below around 106,600 in this period, it will further decline to the 105,800 or even 105,000 zone. 2. 4-hour and daily structure: The main trend has not yet reversed, and the daily line remains in a bullish arrangement. The 20/50/100 moving averages are steadily bullish, and the oscillation and pullback of the Bollinger Bands opening do not affect the trend direction. The 4-hour chart shows that although the MACD histogram can decline, it is still above the zero axis. The RSI is neutral to strong, and the price is operating above the 20EMA (around 104,300). The overall structure indicates that a short-term pullback may occur, but the main trend is solid, representing a healthy adjustment. 3. Macroeconomic Variables and Derivatives Structure: Enhanced Expectations of Volatility in Macroeconomic Policy: Nasdaq hits new highs due to AI, while defensive assets such as Bitcoin and gold show weak performance, indicating a short-term market style leaning towards "risk assets," but the Federal Reserve's concerns over inflation persist. Middle East Geopolitics: Although a ceasefire is temporarily established, tensions remain, and risk-averse funds may flow into BTC or gold at any time in the short term. US-China trade negotiations: If positive signals emerge, improved risk appetite will help BTC pump; otherwise, the market may return to range-bound fluctuations. Options Expiry and Gamma Wall: $11 billion in options will expire soon, with Gamma pain points roughly distributed around the 105K and 107K areas, making BTC's price movement expected to be locked within this range from tonight until tomorrow morning. 4. Comprehensive Judgment and Strategy Suggestions: The technical bias is bearish, and the momentum is clearly declining, with a short-term tendency for fluctuations and pullbacks. If the 15-minute MACD death cross is confirmed and drops below 106,600, it will further open the opportunity to test the support levels of 105,800-105,000. If the price recovers the 106,800-107,000 area and the MACD continues to reverse, the bulls still have room for a counterattack, but it is necessary to pay attention to the lack of volume confirmation, which may also just be a rebound. Operation suggestion: Focus on short-term oscillation trading, and set reasonable stop-loss and take-profit levels. Key points of attention are the support at 106,600 and 105,800, as well as the resistance zone at 107,000-107,200. 5. Conclusion Tonight until tomorrow morning, BTC is likely to fluctuate back and forth within the "Wagner Combat Zone" (between 105K and 107K). The short-term cycle has issued a top signal, but the main trend remains stable. It is recommended that traders adopt a primary strategy of "buying on pullbacks + shorting on rebounds" and dynamically adjust their positions in real-time according to MACD and EMA death crosses/golden crosses. This article is only a short-term strategy sharing and does not constitute investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, so please be sure to manage risks and trade rationally.

June 28 ETH Market Analysis and Operation Guide 📊 Key Long and Short Signal Comparison Long signals and short risks in dimensions On-chain data shows that the exchange's ETH supply has dropped to an 8-year low (only 6.38% of circulation), with whales increasing their holdings by 1.4 million ETH over the week, indicating a strong willingness to accumulate long-term. Grayscale ETHE saw a net outflow of $27.4 million in a single day, putting significant short-term withdrawal pressure on institutions. Technical Form 4-hour MACD histogram decreases and turns green, RSI (42) enters the oversold zone, indicating a demand for rebound. The daily EMA shows a bearish arrangement, with a strong resistance zone formed between 2520-2480, with multiple failed attempts to break through. Funding sentiment: The fear index has reached 21 (extreme fear), with a surge in short positions laying the groundwork for a short squeeze. The perpetual contract funding rate is -0.012%, and leveraged long positions continue to stop-loss. Market depth is 37% thinner than during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis. Event Catalyst: The probability of a Fed rate cut in September has risen to 70%, which is favorable for risk assets as the dollar index hits a new low. The SEC may reject the staked ETH ETF (classifying returns as securities) today, potentially triggering a sell-off down to 2300. 💡 Core contradiction: On-chain accumulation supports long-term value vs. technical pressure not broken + regulatory black swan risk. 2420 is the watershed for bulls and bears; if 2380 is held, a rebound may be triggered; if lost, it will accelerate downward. ⚔ Operational Strategy: Long positions between 2380-2400, reduce positions on highs above 2470. 1. Bullish Layout (Main Strategy) Emergency Bottom Buying Zone: 2380-2400 light position long (30% position), stop loss 2350, target 2430→2460 Basis: The lower Bollinger Band on the daily chart coincides with the rebound starting point on June 25, verifying the cost of the whale. Rebound accumulation point: A strong volume stabilizes at 2440 (4-hour EMA10 pressure turning into support), increase position to 50%, move stop loss up to 2400, target 2470→2500 2. Short Hedge (Light Position Test Order) Shorting window: 2460-2480 (daily mid-track resistance + TD9 signal dense area) Light short position (10% position), stop loss 2500, target 2420→2380 Note: Counter-trend operations should be quick in and out, limited to hedging risks. 3. Key Position Operation Table Price range operation stop-loss target technical basis 2380-2400 Buy in batches (mainly long) 2350 2430→2460 Historical strong support + panic oversold zone resonance Around 2420, watch or try a small long position. 2400 2460→2470, the current price area needs volume confirmation for direction. 2440↑ Breakthrough to add long positions / increase holdings 2400 2470→2500 Signal to break out of the consolidation range 2460-2480 reduce long positions / lightly short test 2500 2420→2380 middle track strong pressure + trapped selling pressure 2350↓ Stop-loss long position, reverse to short at 2380, 2300→2250 Breakout triggers Gamma squeeze ⚠ Risk Warning SEC Black Swan: If the staking ETH ETF is rejected today (June 28), it may crash to 2300, and long positions need to be hedged in advance. Liquidity Trap: Weak market depth, a $50 million sell order can trigger "nuclear-level" volatility, avoid high leverage. Geopolitical conflict: The Middle East situation is fluctuating (Risks in the Strait of Hormuz), soaring oil prices may drag ETH to test 2350. 💎 Summary: 2380-2400 game rebound, decisively stop loss if it breaks 2350. Operation mantra: "Buy at 2380 during a sharp drop, sell at 2470 on a rebound; short on a high with no volume, run at a breakout of 2350" Current price around 2420: If it does not break 2410 within 1 hour, you can try a small long position (stop loss at 2400), target 2460; if it rebounds to 2460 with low volume, then reduce the position or try a short. Non-entrants: Wait patiently for 2380-2400 to gradually accumulate long positions, with a strict stop loss at 2350. Break below 2380: wait and see until 2350, if it breaks then chase the short to see 2300. Market Focus: ✅ SEC ruling: The result of the staking ETF will be announced tonight or early tomorrow morning Beijing time; ✅ Volume: A rebound requires sustained increase in volume (≥10 billion USD/4 hours), otherwise the risk of a false breakout is high; ✅ ETH/BTC exchange rate: If it falls below 0.055, ETH will show increasing relative weakness. Currently at a critical point of change, 2380 is the last line of defense for the bulls. Using stop-losses can improve the risk-reward ratio, but strict precautions against regulatory black swans are necessary! #ETH##BTC##中心化交易所Top3的重塑时刻##Kevin Lee入驻Gate广场##香港数字资产政策2.0发布#

#ETH##BTC# Ethereum June 27 Evening Operation Guide: 📊 Comparison of Key Long and Short Signals Dimension bullish signal bearish risk On-chain support at the price level of 2440 has formed a solid support area that has been tested multiple times without breaking. Whales increased their holdings by 1.4 million Ether, setting a record, while the ETH supply on exchanges dropped to an 8-year low (only 6.38% in circulation). However, ETFs saw a net outflow of 26.4 million USD yesterday (Grayscale ETHE accounted for 27.4 million), with institutional funds withdrawing 4.71 billion. Technical Form: The 4-hour MACD contraction has ended, and a golden cross between DIF and DEA has begun to appear. RSI (45) has exited the oversold zone. The 89-day Bollinger Bands middle track shows strong resistance at 2520, and the EMA is in a bearish arrangement. The range of 2490-2500 is a dense area for TD9 signals. Market Sentiment: The Fear Index has risen to 66 (Greed), with a surge in short positions posing a risk of a short squeeze. 5 The perpetual contract funding rate is -0.012%, leveraged long positions continue to stop-loss, and market depth is 37%58 thinner than during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis. Event Catalyst: The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September rises to 70%, the US dollar index hits a new low (97.48), which is favorable for risk assets. If the SEC vetoes the staking-based ETH ETF (decision by the end of June), it may trigger a sell-off to 230059. 💡 Core contradiction: technical oversold rebound demand vs short-term capital outflow pressure. 2440 is the dividing line between bulls and bears; if held, it will test 2490, if lost, it will retest 2380. ⚔ Key Positions and Operational Strategies 1. Bullish Layout (Priority) Main multiple regions: 2380-2400 (daily Bollinger lower band + June 25 rebound starting point) Lightly long (30% position), stop loss at 2350, target 2450→2490 Based on: the cost zone of whales + the resonance of panic overselling support, the bottoming effect is enhanced by 68 after the release of ETF selling pressure. Breakthrough Add-on Point: Volume stabilizes at 2460 (4-hour EMA30 pressure converted to support) Increase the position to 50%, move the stop loss to 2420, target 2490→2520 2. Short Hedge (Light Position Test Order) Shorting window: 2470-2490 (Bollinger Band middle line + TD9 signal dense area) Light short position (10% position), stop loss 2510, target 2420→2380 Note: Counter-trend operations require quick entry and exit, limited to hedging risks 39 3. Key Position Operation Table Price range operation stop-loss target technical basis 2380-2400 buy in batches (mainly long) 2350 2450→2490 institutional cost zone + panic oversold support 68 Around 2440, observe or try a very small long position. 2410 2480→2490, the current price needs to confirm the direction with volume. 2460↑ Breakthrough to increase positions/adding to holdings 2420 2490→2520 Signal 9 to exit the consolidation range Reduce long positions/lightly short between 2470-2490, strong resistance at mid-track + leverage liquidation at 36 for 2510 2420→2380. 2380↓ Stop loss for long position, reverse to short at 2410 2300→2250 Break point triggers Gamma squeeze 5 ⚠ Risk Warning Continued outflow of ETF funds: If today's ETF has a net outflow exceeding $20 million, it may suppress the rebound space. SEC Black Swan: If the staking ETF is rejected (considered as securities) before the end of June, it may crash to 230059. Liquidity Trap: Weak market depth, a $50 million sell order can trigger "nuclear-level" volatility, need to avoid high leverage 5. 💎 Summary: Long positions in the 2380-2400 range, reduce positions at highs between 2470-2490. Operation mantra: "Buy at 2380 during a rapid drop, sell at 2470 on a rebound; add at 2460 if it stabilizes, run at 2350 if it breaks." Current price around 2440: If it stabilizes above 2440 for 1 hour, you can try a light long position (stop loss at 2410), target 2480; if it rises to 2470 without volume, then reduce your position or try a short. Non-entered parties: patiently wait to accumulate long positions in batches between 2380-2400, with a strict stop loss at 2350. Break through 2460: Follow the trend to go long, with a target above 2490. Market Focus: ✅ Volume: A breakthrough of 2460 requires sustained volume (≥10 billion USD/4 hours), otherwise the risk of a false breakout is high; ✅ ETH/BTC exchange rate: Holding above 0.055 indicates ETH is relatively strong, falling below it indicates weakness; ✅ US stock market opens: A rebound in the Nasdaq will boost risk assets (correlation 0.85) 25. Currently on the eve of a market shift, maintain high selling and low buying between 2380-2490 without breaking through, with stop-loss for better risk-reward ratio!