Thoughts on the Bitcoin Cycle: The Market Is Dynamic It is widely believed that there will be a "bull market" in Bitcoin every four years, but encryption analyst ZERO IKA believes that this view is not entirely correct. The Bitcoin cycle is not determined by a four-year pattern, but by block times, and the circumstances of this cycle may change. The data shows that there are diminishing returns and losses with each halving. However, if we study the "halving structure" of each time in more depth, we can find that the most recent halving did not have a classic blowout top, which can be interpreted as the first "wake-up call". Things can change, especially in a market rife with influencers, manipulators, and “magical” patterns that always repeat. Every bull market is made up of multiple factors such as the laws of supply and demand, new hype/narratives, new liquidity and catalysts, and more. Why does this happen? As mentioned earlier, Bitcoin is a "wealth attractor" that works not only because of its properties, but also because of its laws of supply and demand. Bitcoin is scarce, and miner rewards are halved along with the halving, which helps keep inflation low. Prices rise as demand increases or even stays flat. However, halving dynamics are different compared to previous cycles because they affect a different proportion of supply (more than 92% of BTC supply has been mined), the next halving will have a smaller impact and the current supply Then allow market makers and market dynamics to potentially play different games. The more people or algorithms find a popular trading method, the less likely it is to continue to work. The general consensus is that we will transition to a full-fledged bull market in 2025 after the 2024 halving. While history/cycles show this is the most logical pattern, the market can catch most people by surprise. "This will definitely happen" or "This will never happen" are two of the most dangerous market statements. (Retweet)