Financial market turmoil, Bitcoin may adjust after hitting a historical high.

Recently, the global financial markets have once again fallen into turmoil. The large-scale fiscal legislation introduced by the U.S. government has raised concerns about the U.S. debt issue, leading to a simultaneous decline in U.S. stocks, Treasury bonds, and the dollar. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market has shown a different trend, with Bitcoin maintaining strong momentum after reaching a historical high.

Macroeconomic Situation

A recently passed large-scale fiscal bill has raised concerns in the market about the U.S. debt issue. The bill involves reforms in several areas but will also significantly raise the U.S. debt ceiling to 140% of GDP. This has led to questions about the U.S. government's ability to repay its debts, further diminishing the attractiveness of U.S. Treasury bonds.

As a result, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries jumped to a high of 4.5%. This will increase borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, potentially suppressing investment and consumption, ultimately impacting corporate profitability.

In the stock market, all three major indexes fell, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average decreasing by 2.47%, 2.61%, and 2.47%, respectively. The US dollar index also ended its previous streak of gains, dropping 1.03% to 99.1252 for the week.

In this case, gold has once again become a safe-haven asset. London gold rose 1.98% over the week to $3359.90/ounce.

Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Compared to the turbulence of traditional financial markets, the cryptocurrency market has shown relative resilience. Bitcoin reached a historic high of $112,000 this week, marking seven consecutive weeks of gains. This is mainly attributed to the inflow of funds into spot ETFs, increased holdings by listed companies, and favorable regulatory policies.

From a technical perspective, the Bitcoin price is operating above the 5-week moving average, with an increase in trading volume, and the weekly MACD has just risen above the zero line. The price is also maintaining above the first upward trend line. Nevertheless, influenced by the turbulence in traditional financial markets, a certain degree of adjustment may occur in the short term.

Progress on Stablecoin Regulation

The United States and Hong Kong have made significant progress in stablecoin regulation. The U.S. Senate has passed a procedural vote on a stablecoin regulatory framework, providing guidance on the definition, regulation, and auditing of stablecoins. The Hong Kong Legislative Council has also passed the "Stablecoin Bill," establishing a comprehensive licensing and regulatory framework for fiat-backed stablecoins.

These developments indicate that, in addition to Bitcoin as a store of value, decentralized applications based on smart contract platforms and the Web3 ecosystem are also being recognized by governments around the world, which is of great significance for the development of the entire blockchain industry.

Fund Flow Situation

Despite the turmoil in traditional financial markets, the cryptocurrency market has maintained a strong inflow of funds. Over the past 7 trading days, the market has continuously seen a net inflow of funds, totaling 5.574 billion USD. Among them, stablecoins accounted for 2.548 billion USD, Bitcoin spot ETFs for 2.775 billion USD, and Ethereum spot ETFs for 250 million USD.

However, with the price of Bitcoin reaching new highs, there have also been signs of profit-taking. This week, the number of Bitcoins flowing into exchanges reached 159869.37 coins, an increase compared to previous weeks. However, the total amount of Bitcoin on centralized exchanges continues to decrease, currently down to 2987307 coins.

Market Outlook

Although Bitcoin has performed strongly recently, the market still needs to be cautious of potential adjustments. Long-term holders have started to reduce their holdings near the new highs, with a reduction of 1195.43 coins throughout the week. At the same time, the uncertainty of the global macroeconomy may impact the cryptocurrency market.

According to a certain technical indicator, Bitcoin is currently in an upward cycle, with an indicator value of 0.75. However, investors still need to closely monitor changes in the global economic situation and regulatory policies, as well as potential shifts in market sentiment.