On September 5, if the market's predictions about the lukewarm U.S. employment growth in August and the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% are accurate, it will confirm the weakness in the labor market and provide a "definitive conclusion" for the Fed's interest rate cut this month. Currently, U.S. employment growth seems to have entered a "stall" state, with economists attributing this to President Trump’s sweeping import tariffs and immigration crackdowns that have led to a reduction in the labor pool. The weakness in the labor market mainly stems from hiring. Economists expect that non-farm payrolls increased by 75,000 last month, up from an increase of 73,000 in July. Earlier, the employment data for May and June was significantly revised down by 258,000, which angered Trump last month. Trump used this as a reason to fire Bureau of Labor Statistics chief Erika McEntarfer, accusing her of falsifying employment data. When the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its preliminary revised estimates of employment levels for the 12 months ending in March next Tuesday, the slow employment growth is likely to be confirmed. Based on existing Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data, economists estimate that employment levels may be revised down by as much as 800,000. QCEW data comes from reports submitted by employers to state unemployment insurance programs. Economists estimate that the economy needs to create between 50,000 and 75,000 jobs each month to keep up with the growth of the working-age population.
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The U.S. labor market has entered a "stalling moment," with job openings expected to be revised down by as much as 800,000 next week.
On September 5, if the market's predictions about the lukewarm U.S. employment growth in August and the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% are accurate, it will confirm the weakness in the labor market and provide a "definitive conclusion" for the Fed's interest rate cut this month. Currently, U.S. employment growth seems to have entered a "stall" state, with economists attributing this to President Trump’s sweeping import tariffs and immigration crackdowns that have led to a reduction in the labor pool. The weakness in the labor market mainly stems from hiring. Economists expect that non-farm payrolls increased by 75,000 last month, up from an increase of 73,000 in July. Earlier, the employment data for May and June was significantly revised down by 258,000, which angered Trump last month. Trump used this as a reason to fire Bureau of Labor Statistics chief Erika McEntarfer, accusing her of falsifying employment data. When the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its preliminary revised estimates of employment levels for the 12 months ending in March next Tuesday, the slow employment growth is likely to be confirmed. Based on existing Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data, economists estimate that employment levels may be revised down by as much as 800,000. QCEW data comes from reports submitted by employers to state unemployment insurance programs. Economists estimate that the economy needs to create between 50,000 and 75,000 jobs each month to keep up with the growth of the working-age population.