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As US stocks reach new highs, corporate earnings expectations and optimistic sentiment cool down.
Jin10 data reported on October 13th, as U.S. stocks hover near record highs, analysts' optimism about corporate earnings is cooling, indicating that this round of the market may encounter resistance during the earnings season. Citigroup's index tracking the adjustments to U.S. corporate earnings expectations (measuring the ratio of upward to downward revisions) has recently turned flat for the first time since August. Meanwhile, the forward price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 index has reached 22 times, significantly higher than the average level of nearly 19 times over the past decade. Evercore ISI strategist Julian Emanuel pointed out that the stock price reactions during the earnings season are expected to be 'severely differentiated' and are unlikely to serve as a catalyst for pushing the index higher, as current market valuations 'have almost fully reflected perfect expectations.' RBC Capital Market strategist Lori Calvasina stated that the proportion of companies exceeding earnings expectations this season is expected to slow compared to the previous quarter, as the impact of tariffs is greater, 'for the largest companies by market capitalization, earnings sentiment is at a critical turning point.'