Gate Research: BTC Short-Term Holders Remain Under Pressure | Stablecoin Settlement Enters the Banking System

Crypto Market Overview

• BTC (+2.05% | Current Price: 87,572 USDT): After a sharp pullback, BTC found support above the 85,000 level and has rebounded to consolidate around the 87,500 area. From a moving-average perspective, MA5 and MA10 are flattening and converging toward price, while MA30 remains in a downward slope, indicating a short-term rebound and repair phase with unresolved medium-term resistance. The MACD histogram has contracted significantly, and both signal lines are rebounding from low levels, suggesting recovering bullish momentum, though a decisive reversal has yet to be confirmed. If BTC can firmly hold the 87,000–87,500 range, it may attempt to test resistance at 88,500–89,000. A renewed drop below 86,500 would likely invalidate the rebound structure and return the market to a weak, range-bound bias.
• ETH (+0.46% | Current Price: 2,958 USDT): ETH stabilized around the 2,880 level after a sharp decline and has since rebounded into the 2,950–2,960 range. Short-term moving averages (MA5 and MA10) have begun to turn upward, but price remains capped by the downward-sloping MA30, indicating a weak rebound rather than a trend reversal. The MACD histogram continues to narrow, reflecting a clear slowdown in bearish momentum, and the signal lines show early signs of a potential bullish crossover, though further confirmation is needed. If ETH can hold above 2,940, it may continue to recover toward the 3,000 level; a break below 2,920 could lead to a retest of recent lows.
• Altcoins: The Fear & Greed Index has eased to 16, remaining firmly in the “Extreme Fear” zone. Despite minor day-over-day fluctuations, overall market sentiment has not meaningfully improved. Risk appetite remains subdued, with capital largely staying on the sidelines.
• Macro: On December 16, the S&P 500 fell 0.24% to 6,800.26, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.62% to 48,114.26, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.23% to 23,111.46. As of December 17 at 02:15 AM (UTC), spot gold was trading at approximately $4,321 per ounce, up 0.45% over the past 24 hours.

Trending Tokens

PTB Portal To Bitcoin (+86.81%, Circulating Market Cap: $10.31M)

According to Gate market data, PTB is currently trading at $0.006150, up approximately 86.81% over the past 24 hours. PTB (Portal To Bitcoin) is a cross-chain and application-layer narrative project built around the Bitcoin ecosystem, with the core objective of enabling interoperability between Bitcoin and other public blockchains through the Portal architecture. The project aims to enhance BTC’s scalability across DeFi, application-layer use cases, and asset circulation.

Recently, the team has released multiple signals, including upcoming Portal developer updates and scheduled public Spaces events related to the Bitcoin ecosystem, continuously reinforcing market attention on its technical progress and ecosystem positioning. From a price-action perspective, this rally appears to be driven by a combination of “strengthening institutional Bitcoin narratives, rising project expectations, and low-float capital dynamics.” On one hand, discussions around Bitcoin’s financialization and accelerating institutional and banking adoption have intensified, expanding the narrative space for Portal’s vision of “native Bitcoin application expansion.” On the other hand, the timing of forthcoming development disclosures has created an expectation gap, encouraging speculative capital to position ahead of confirmed updates.

LIGHT Bitlight Labs (+27.01%, Circulating Market Cap: $67.16M)

According to Gate market data, LIGHT is currently priced at $1.5733, up 27.01% in the past 24 hours. Bitlight Labs is a Bitcoin-focused infrastructure project that integrates the RGB protocol with the Lightning Network, aiming to evolve Bitcoin from a single-purpose value transfer network into a programmable asset layer with diversified application capabilities. Its product suite includes the Bitlight Wallet, Lightning RGB-related tools, and testing frameworks, all designed to enable more efficient asset issuance, transfer, and payments without compromising Bitcoin’s core security.

Recently, the team disclosed testing plans for Lightning RGB while simultaneously rolling out wallet maintenance and upgrades, signaling continued technical progress. Overall, LIGHT’s recent price appreciation appears to be driven by “reinforced Bitcoin ecosystem narratives, expectations around its technical roadmap, and positive market sentiment.” The combination of RGB and Lightning directly aligns with the market’s long-term expectations for Bitcoin application-layer expansion, giving Bitlight a clear and differentiated technical identity among BTC ecosystem projects. In addition, the concentrated release of maintenance updates, testing plans, and research-oriented content has strengthened short-term progress expectations, drawing in early-positioning capital.

ARC AI Rig Complex (+16.98%, Circulating Market Cap: $47.96M)

According to Gate market data, ARC is trading at $0.04779, up approximately 16.98% over the past 24 hours. AI Rig Complex centers around “Rig,” a Rust-native AI Agent framework positioned as a high-performance, composable, and engineering-oriented development toolkit for building AI Agents. Built in Rust, Rig emphasizes safety, execution efficiency, and modular design, making it suitable for agents capable of tool invocation, iterative reasoning, and complex task orchestration.

Recently, core developers have clearly outlined plans to advance systematic documentation and book-style materials for Rig, while ecosystem project Ryzome demonstrated plug-and-play web content capabilities built on Rig. These developments further reinforce ARC’s positioning as a “developer-friendly AI Agent infrastructure.” From a market-move perspective, ARC’s recent strength appears to be driven by a convergence of “developer-focused narratives, renewed interest in the AI Agent sector, and capital rotation within mid- to small-cap assets.” As market attention shifts from standalone AI applications back toward agent frameworks and foundational tooling, the Rust × AI Agents approach represented by Rig has gained notable differentiation within the technical community. However, recent information releases have not yet been accompanied by clear commercialization metrics or large-scale user adoption, suggesting that current price action is primarily driven by expectations and sentiment rather than validated fundamentals.

Alpha Insights

BTC Short-Term Holdings Remain Under Pressure as Supply Accelerates Toward Long-Term Conviction Holders

According to CryptoQuant data, short-term holders remain in a clear loss position, with the duration of losses continuing to extend. This indicates that the market is undergoing a typical phase of “weak-hand capitulation.” Against the backdrop of prolonged failure to achieve an effective price rebound, capital with lower risk tolerance and shorter trading horizons has increasingly opted to exit via stop-losses. As a result, short-term selling pressure persists, constraining the market’s ability to form a strong upward structure in the near term.

From an on-chain supply perspective, the decline in short-term holdings corresponds with gradual absorption by long-term or high-conviction holders. Supply is increasingly concentrating in addresses with lower cost bases and longer holding periods, signaling an improvement in the market’s supply structure and a marginal decline in potential sell pressure. Historically, such supply redistribution processes tend to occur during bottoming phases or mid-term recovery periods. While short-term volatility may remain elevated, the medium- to long-term structure is gradually laying the groundwork for a subsequent trend recovery.

Stablecoin Expansion Slows as On-Chain Liquidity Cools at the Margin

Recent data show that total stablecoin supply continues to grow in absolute terms, but the rolling 12-month growth rate peaked in late October and has since declined. This deceleration reflects a slowdown in the pace of stablecoin inflows, in line with reduced momentum in new capital entering the crypto market. Compared with the previous phase of rapid expansion, the current environment is closer to one of “continued accumulation in scale, but weakening marginal impetus,” significantly diminishing support for short-term price action and risk appetite.

In conjunction with the recent market pullback, these liquidity dynamics are more likely linked to increasingly cautious macro expectations. As risk pricing stabilizes, the willingness of incremental capital to enter the crypto market has declined, leading to slower stablecoin issuance and on-chain accumulation. This suggests that even if absolute inflows remain meaningful, overall liquidity conditions are no longer as accommodative as before, and upside momentum is increasingly dependent on capital rotation within the existing liquidity base rather than fresh inflows.

USDC Settlement Integrates with Solana, Bringing Stablecoin Clearing into the Banking System

Visa announced that select banks can now conduct transaction settlement using Circle-issued USDC via the Solana blockchain, marking the first substantive deployment of its stablecoin settlement service within the U.S. banking system. Initial participants include Cross River Bank and Lead Bank, with settlement processes executed directly on a public blockchain. This significantly shortens settlement cycles and reduces inter-institutional transfer costs, introducing a new technological pathway for bank-to-bank fund settlement.

From an industry-structure perspective, this development not only expands the application boundaries of stablecoins within traditional finance but also accelerates collaboration between Visa and Circle in building on-chain payment infrastructure. As the regulatory environment becomes more accommodative, the jointly developed Arc chain is likely to advance more rapidly under this backdrop, paving the way for broader institutional adoption. Data show that, as of the end of November, Visa-related stablecoin services had reached an annualized settlement volume of $3.5 billion, underscoring the transition of stablecoins from purely crypto-native instruments toward critical financial rails with real-world payment and settlement functionality.


References

• Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/BTC_USDT
• Farside Investors, https://farside.co.uk/btc/
• Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/ETH_USDT
• Farside Investors, https://farside.co.uk/eth/
• Gate, https://www.gate.com/crypto-market-data
• Investing, https://investing.com/indices/usa-indices
• Investing, https://investing.com/currencies/xau-usd
• X, https://x.com/Cointelegraph/status/2000785712140960065?s=20
• Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-16/visa-offers-stablecoin-settlement-for-us-banks-using-circle-s-usdc

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Disclaimer
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