Here’s a shocking fact: There are a lot of perp DEXs right now.

But only one is performing like an ultimate exchange that automatically spends almost everything it earns buying back its own token on the open market.

That’s my entire thesis on Hyperliquid in one sentence:

If you believe perp DEX volume keeps growing, HYPE is one of the cleanest, most leveraged ways to own that trend.

Here’s my personal thesis on how Hyperliquid works and what the current token design could develop in the future.

TL;DR

• Hyperliquid is already doing billions in daily volume and $1.3B+ in annualized revenue.
• 97% of all fees are routed into an automated Assistance Fund, which market-buys HYPE on the open market.
• The fund has already spent $600M+ on HYPE buybacks and holds a large stack of tokens itself.

With simple volume + market share assumptions, I get rough price scenarios of:

• Bear: $45–50

• Base: $80–90

• • Bull: $160–180
• The R/R is about whether Hyperliquid keeps winning volume and keeps the 97% buyback policy intact.

Hyperliquid Today

To get a better understanding of where Hyperliquid is heading, we need to understand where it is today.

Here’s a quick data overview:

• Perp volume: ~$8B+ daily
• Annualized revenue: ~$1.2–1.3B
• HYPE market cap: ~$10B
• HYPE FDV: ~$38B
• Staked HYPE: ~42%
• Assistance Fund balance: 35M HYPE

The Core Mechanic: 97% of Fees → Automated Buybacks

This is the most important part of the bull case.

Hyperliquid uses HYPE token buybacks funded by protocol trading fees.

• Traders pay fees on perps + spot.
• Those fees are routed into the Assistance Fund.
• The Assistance Fund is programmed to use ~97% of all exchange fees to repurchase HYPE tokens on the open market, continuously.
• More volume → more fees → more buybacks

In other words, nearly every dollar the exchange earns becomes mechanical buy pressure for HYPE.

On top of that:

• On HyperEVM, gas is paid in HYPE.
• The base fee uses an EIP-1559 style mechanism, so part of that HYPE is burned, adding another deflationary lane.

So you have:

• 97% of trading fees → HYPE buybacks
• HyperEVM gas → HYPE burns
• Staking → HYPE sink

HyperEVM

Hyperliquid started as a custom protocol for perps. Now there’s also HyperEVM, an EVM layer where:

• Users pay gas in HYPE
• Base fees are burned
• Onchain apps (perps front-ends, HIP-3 markets, other protocols) add extra demand for blockspace and HYPE.

I treat HyperEVM as a second engine:

• Engine 1: Perps volume → fees → 97% buybacks.
• Engine 2: HyperEVM activity → HYPE gas → burns + more fees.

Scenario Setup

Today:

• Total perp DEX volume: ~$38B/day
• Hyperliquid volume: ~$8B/day (~20–22% share)
• Fee rate: ~0.04% of volume (assuming most traders are takers)
• Annualized fees: $1.3B
• 97% to buybacks: ~$1.2-1.25B per year
• Market cap: $10B
• So MC/buybacks ~8.5x

I then assume:

• The market continues to value HYPE at roughly the same multiple of buybacks (around 8.5x)
• Perp DEX volume grows
• Hyperliquid holds or gains market share

Scenario 1: Bear Case

Bear case: Perp DEX flow grows and Hyperliquid simply holds its share → HYPE ends up somewhere around the mid-$40 to $50 range under this framework.

Assumptions:

• Total perp DEX volume: 1.5× today
• Hyperliquid’s share: Flat

Results:

• Annualized buybacks: ~$1.8B
• At 8.5× MC/buybacks → implied MC ≈ $15.4B
• With ~337M HYPE in circulation → implied price ≈ $45–50

Scenario 2: Base Case

Base case: Onchain perps double and Hyperliquid gains share → HYPE sits in the $80s-$90 range.

Assumptions:

• Total perp DEX volume: 2× today
• Hyperliquid share: ~30%

Results:

• Annualized buybacks: ~$3.34B
• At 8.5× → implied MC ~$28.4B
• With ~337M tokens → implied price ≈ $80–90

Scenario 3: Bull Case

Bull case: Onchain perps 3× and Hyperliquid becomes the dominant venue → HYPE in the $160–180+ band on the same 8.5× multiple.

Assumptions:

• Total perp DEX volume: 3× today
• Hyperliquid share: ~40%

Results:

• Annualized buybacks: ~$6.68B
• At 8.5× → implied MC ~$56.8B
• With ~337M tokens → implied price ≈ $160–180

Important:

These are not price targets. They don’t include extra upside from HyperEVM gas, new products, overall market sentiment, or any change in multiple (up or down).

They just show what happens if you:

• Take current fee/buyback economics
• Apply a fixed 8.5× MC/buybacks
• Let volume + market share push the buyback number around

Assuming a full altseason in 2026, along with the Bull Scenario playing out, I believe $250 is a realistic number for HYPE.

Why I’m Bullish

Here’s why this setup is interesting to me:

1. Real, visible cashflow: Hyperliquid is already collecting >$1.3B/year in protocol revenue and pushing ~97% of it into HYPE buybacks.
2. Simple, aggressive design: 97% of all exchange fees go into an Assistance Fund that buys back HYPE on the open market is about as clean as tokenomics gets.
3. Perp DEX growth: Onchain perps are taking real share from CEX derivatives. Hyperliquid has repeatedly led the race on daily DeFi rev and buybacks.
4. HyperEVM optionality: More apps and HIP-3 markets mean more HYPE gas + more fee lanes feeding the same Assistance Fund.

Put together: Volume growth + high fee share + 97% buybacks + 8.5× multiple gives a very straightforward path to higher justified prices if Hyperliquid keeps killing it.

Final Thoughts

For me, the bull case for HYPE isn’t the number go up because narrative, it’s:

• A perp DEX with insane liquidity and depth + L1 combo that already generates billions in volume
• A token model where ~97% of trading fees are mechanically recycled into HYPE buybacks

That’s the thesis I’m using when I say I’m insanely bullish on HYPE.

Are there risks? Yes

Is the opportunity cost of holding HYPE worth it? Absolutely.

Disclaimer:

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