XRP Spot ETF expected to gain traction, prediction market optimistic about the approval rate reaching 89%

The market is highly anticipating the XRP Spot ETF.

According to the latest data from the prediction market platform Polymarket, investors’ confidence in the approval of the XRP Spot ETF has continued to rise, with the predicted approval rate reaching 89% before the deadline, significantly higher than the historical average. This wave of optimism, despite the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) still not providing a clear response to the related applications, shows strong interest from both institutions and retail investors in the potential of the XRP ETF.

(Source: Polymarket)

Increased pressure on review deadlines

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart pointed out that, according to current regulations, the SEC typically uses the full 240-day review period to process ETF proposals filed on Form 19b-4. Similar to the recent Bitcoin Spot ETF review process, XRP-related proposals may also face several delays.

Derivatives pave the way for Spot.

Although spot products have not yet been approved, XRP-related futures ETFs have gradually emerged, indicating that market participants are exploring this asset through other means. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) launched XRP futures contracts on May 19, and Volatility Shares subsequently listed the XRPI futures ETF on Nasdaq. Furthermore, Tectrium has launched a daily 2x leveraged XRP futures ETF, providing more choices for investors with different risk preferences. Although these products differ in nature from spot ETFs, they operate within a regulatory framework, opening low-threshold entry channels for traditional financial institutions and indirectly enhancing market expectations for spot ETFs.

Ripple CEO is optimistic about the ETF model.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse emphasized in the company’s own podcast that the ETF model allows traditional funds to easily access the cryptocurrency market without the need to directly operate exchanges or self-custody wallets. He pointed out that after the launch of the Bitcoin Spot ETF, it surpassed 1 billion dollars in assets in a very short time, and this performance proves that traditional investors have a high demand for similar products, which also paves the way for the XRP ETF.

The tug-of-war between market enthusiasm and the pace of reality

Although the prediction market is currently highly optimistic, the industry generally cautions that the SEC’s review process has significant uncertainty. Products such as Grayscale and Solana ETF also face review delays, indicating that regulators remain cautious. Even if the approval rate reaches 89%, any additional document requests or public comment periods could affect the timeline and even disrupt investors’ expected pace.

Summary

The discussion of the XRP Spot ETF has once again brought this asset into the spotlight. Although the likelihood of approval in the short term is low, alternative products have emerged in the market, the regulatory environment is becoming clearer, and the strong signals from the prediction market indicate that traditional capital is eyeing this closely. For investors looking to engage with XRP, the regulatory developments in the coming months will be of utmost importance.