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Polymarket accused of double-counting trading volume, Paradigm research sparks industry controversy
A recent study by Paradigm pointed out that due to smart contract events being counted multiple times, the trading volume of the prediction market platform Polymarket may be overstated by about 100% on third-party dashboards. After the research was published, it quickly sparked heated discussions among data teams, analytics firms, and competitors, also exposing the structural challenges prediction markets face in measuring trading volume.
According to the analysis by Paradigm research partner Storm Slivkoff, Polymarket's smart contracts generate an OrderFilled event of the same amount for both the maker and the taker in each transaction. Most dashboards do not distinguish between the two sides when aggregating these events, resulting in each trade being counted twice. For example, a $4.13 YES trade would be recorded as $8.26 in trading volume on the dashboard.
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