The new week begins with a "good start" in the cryptocurrency market, as overall trading sentiment warms up and the willingness to go long significantly increases. BTC launched a strong upward movement yesterday from the critical level of 106100, reaching a peak of 109400 during the day, with a maximum daily increase of over 3300, stabilizing above 108000; ETH followed suit, fluctuating from around 3810 and climbing to near 4030, with a cumulative increase of 220, breaking through the 5-day moving average resistance. The two major cryptocurrencies moved up in sync, establishing a clear positive tone for the new week’s market, and combined with the current market volume and flow, today maintains an expectation of overall upward consolidation.

1. In-depth analysis of multi-dimensional technical aspects

1. 1-hour level: The short-term oscillating upward structure is solid.

• Price Trend: Yesterday afternoon, BTC rose to 109400 before experiencing a slight pullback, reaching a low of 107800, but quickly recovered afterward. During the pullback, it did not break the intraday upward trend line, forming a clear "high surge - pullback - further upward" oscillation channel, with clear boundaries for the support at the lower edge (107500) and resistance at the upper edge (109500).

• Volume and Indicators: The bearish volume shows a "stair-step decline," with the trading volume during the pullback phase reduced by about 30% compared to the upward phase, indicating that short-term selling pressure has been sufficiently released; after completing a bottom consolidation around 107800, the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages form an early shape of a "bullish alignment," with the moving averages turning upwards at an angle of about 15°, signaling a clear upward trend in the short term.

• Key conclusion: Although the short-term upward momentum is slightly restrained by the previous resistance at 109500, the stability of the market has significantly improved, and there is no risk of "breaking out with volume." The upward structure remains intact, making it suitable to position for a short long based on the lower edge of the channel.

2. 4-hour level: The upward logic is clear after the medium-term consolidation.

• Channels and Support: The 4-hour level operating channel has entered the "narrowing consolidation" end, with the previous channel width (104000-109000) narrowing to 107000-109500. Yesterday, the price quickly rebounded after probing the lower edge of the channel at the critical support of 107000. During the rebound, the trading volume increased simultaneously, indicating strong buying support at this position, making the bottom support effective.

• Short Position and Moving Averages: The short position has not formed effective volume at the support level of 107000, and the 4-hour candlestick has closed with a "long lower shadow bullish bar", which is a typical "support confirmation" pattern; although the moving average system is temporarily in a state of being stuck between the 5-day and 10-day moving averages (current difference is only 200), there has been no single-sided downward signal, and the 30-day moving average continues to rise, providing support for the mid-term market.

• Key conclusion: The logic of "oscillation repair - power accumulation upward" is clear in the short term, with 107000 as an important mid-term support level. As long as this position is not broken, the probability of breaking through 109500 later is relatively high.

Long Position Layout Strategy (Core Strategy)

• Entry timing and levels:

1. Enter steadily: Wait for the price to pull back to the 107500-107000 range, and enter when a bullish candlestick pattern such as a "hammer" or "morning star" appears on the 1-hour chart. At this point, the short-term support can be confirmed as effective, reducing the risk of chasing highs.

2. Aggressive Entry: If the price directly breaks through 109000 and the trading volume at the 1-hour level increases (by more than 20% compared to the previous hour), a small long position can be taken, using 108500 as a short-term stop-loss level.

• Target range and take-profit strategy:

◦ First target: 109000-109500, this range is near yesterday's high, there is a certain amount of trapped positions, you can reduce 50% of your position at this location to lock in some profits.

◦ Second target: 110000. If the first target is broken and the trading volume continues to increase, you may hold the remaining 50% position towards the second target. If it reaches 110000 and then shows bearish patterns such as "shooting star" or "dark cloud cover", immediately take all profits.

2. Kongdan (auxiliary strategy, participate with caution)

• Entry condition: Only enter when the price reaches the range of 109500-110000.

• Target: The target range for short positions is 107500-106000

3. Key Points of Risk Control

• Position Management: Regardless of long or short positions, the entry position for each trade should not exceed 15% of the total capital. Long positions can be entered in 2-3 batches to avoid full exposure at once, thereby reducing the risk of liquidation in extreme market conditions. #Gate9月透明报告出炉 #加密市场回调 #十月降息预测