Bitcoin STH NUPL does not show signs of overheating: $137 can provoke mass sell.

Bitcoin is trading slightly below the level of $120 000 after reaching a new all-time high of $123 200 on Monday. Many investors view the minor pullback as a healthy consolidation above key demand zones rather than a signal of weakness. The bullish momentum remains intact, and a strong technical structure supports expectations for a continuation of the rally in the near term.

Data from the Gate network supports an optimistic forecast. As of July 17, 2025, the net unrealized profit/loss indicator for short-term holders (STH NUPL) is 13%, slightly down from 16% during the last Bitcoin peak. This indicates that most short-term holders are experiencing moderate profits, but not at the extreme levels that typically signal speculative euphoria or an imminent market overheating.

The combination of a stable price structure and healthy behavior in the network indicates a market that is still in the process of growth rather than peaking. As Ethereum and altcoins also gain strength and overall sentiment turns positive, Bitcoin seems well-positioned for its next significant move.

Bitcoin data signals potential for further growth

According to leading analyst Alex Baker, Bitcoin still has significant growth potential before reaching a level of speculative overheating. In previous macro cycles, Baker notes that reaching a net unrealized profit/loss indicator for short-term holders (STH NUPL) of 25% consistently indicated a peak of euphoria among short-term holders. At this point, many investors began to mass-take profits, which often led to a loss of momentum or a broader correction in the market.

As of July 17, 2025, the STH NUPL stands at 13%, indicating moderate unrealized profit among short-term holders. Based on current dynamics, Baker estimates that for this group to reach a level of 25% unrealized profit, Bitcoin will need to surpass the mark of $137 000. This price level now represents a potential launch point for mass selling - a psychological and intra-network threshold that could lead to increased volatility or a pause in the cycle.

Until then, data suggests that there is room for continued bullish price dynamics without fears of immediate profit-taking pressure. This is happening at a critical moment as the US Congress continues to discuss three major cryptocurrency bills during what has been a tense and uncertain “Crypto Week.” After the rejection of proposals over the last two days, the upcoming sessions could either ease regulatory uncertainty or prolong it.

Bitcoin holds key support amid rising trading volumes

The 12-hour chart shows that Bitcoin is consolidating slightly below $120 000 after recently setting a new all-time high at $123 200. Despite a brief pullback, BTC remains in a strong bullish structure, trading well above all key moving averages: 50 SMA at $110 602, 100 SMA at $108 105, and 200 SMA at $102 178. These levels now act as dynamic support zones, highlighting the strength of the current trend.

Notably, trading volume has significantly increased over the past few sessions, with consecutive high-volume candles accompanying both the move to new highs and subsequent pullbacks. This increase in volume indicates heightened activity in the market, likely reflecting a mix of profit-taking and new inflows from traders positioning themselves for further growth.

Currently, the consolidation looks healthy. As long as Bitcoin stays above the short-term moving averages and $109 300, the market structure favors the bulls. A clean pullback to $120 k will open the way for another attempt to reach new highs, possibly targeting the $130-137k region.