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This morning's game between BNA Eagles and Suns was classified by me as a Black Swan Event type on @Polymarket.
The Suns had a winning probability of over 98%, but were ultimately overtaken by the Hawks who closed the gap.
We can get three reviews:
Firstly, it once again verifies the inadvisability of the tail-end strategy on polymarket, especially for sports competitions, where the probability of a Black Swan Event occurring is too high. Sweeping the tail-end can lead to small gains but large losses, as I have mentioned multiple times in my previous articles.
Secondly, even smart money in the NBA cannot avoid such losses, because "smart money" does not equal "winning money." I have seen many instances of smart money frantically selling the Suns to chase the Hawks at the last moment to recover losses.
Thirdly, risk management is crucial; positions should be allocated based on risk rather than winning probability, as this may lead to a positive EV in the long run.
@PolymarketTrade