Don't be fooled by the "four-year cycle" anymore! This might be the biggest lie in the crypto world!

Have you noticed that every time the market moves, it goes exactly against you? When you are full of confidence and increase your position, a waterfall will always arrive on time; when you despair and cut your losses, the market suddenly surges. This is not a coincidence, but a carefully designed betting game— and you are the other party in the trade.

1. October's "curse": Why do market trends always go against the majority?

Historical data shows that October and November are typically the best months for Bitcoin's performance. Because of this, many investors choose to use leverage to go long during these two months, anticipating a price increase by the end of the year.

But there is a cruel law in the market: when most people are betting in the same direction, that direction is almost destined to be wrong.

Exchanges have a god's eye view: they can see the flow of funds across the entire network, the distribution of positions, and even each person's liquidation price. The precise long squeeze on October 11 was no coincidence. It was a systematic leverage washout aimed at harvesting overly crowded long positions.

2. The biggest trap right now: everyone is waiting to buy the dip at 74,000.

After this round of plummet, market sentiment has completely shifted:

· Retail investors generally believe it will drop to the BlackRock ETF cost line of 84,000
· The more pessimistic target points to a MicroStrategy holding cost of 74,000
· Most people are holding cash, with orders of 74,000 waiting to buy the dip.

This forms a perfect reverse indicator - when everyone is standing on the sidelines waiting for the same price point, that price point is very likely never to arrive.

Three, the exchange's conspiracy: how to complete the short squeeze?

The current market structure is exhibiting an extremely distorted state:

1. The short selling funds have reached a massive level.
2. Retail investors have developed a muscle memory for "shorting at highs."
3. A large amount of cash is piled up in the OTC market, waiting for a low-level takeover.

This is the most ideal time for the exchange to pump up.

· Short positions are dense enough that a violent surge will trigger a chain liquidation.
· Off-market funds are forced to miss out and have to chase the price increase at a higher position.
· The long positions' panic selling has been fully released, and the selling pressure is minimal.

Four, two extreme paths, one common goal

Path One: Directly Forceful Surge
Quickly break through the resistance of 106,000 from the current position, charging towards the previous high of 138,000, completing a full liquidation of the shorts before everyone reacts.

Path Two: Deep Wash and Then Surge
First, quickly drop below 74,000, spike down to the latest mining machine cost price (around 60,000), flush out all investors who placed buy orders at the bottom, and then swiftly pull back to initiate the main upward wave.

No matter which path, the goal is the same: to catch most people off guard.

5. Reverse Thinking: The most dangerous thing now is not being trapped, but missing out.

When the market is filled with voices saying "wait for 74,000 to buy the dip," you need to be cautious: this could be a carefully designed emotional trap.

The real bottom never appears in plain sight. When everyone is ready to buy the dip, that bottom no longer exists.

The current panic sentiment, massive short positions, and off-market waiting funds create the best conditions for the upcoming violent surge. The market is always born in despair, rises in hesitation, and ends in frenzy.

Now, do you still have to wait for that 74,000 that will never come?

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