Don't be fooled by the "bull run is over" rhetoric; the real madness hasn't begun yet.

Some people say the Bear Market has arrived, but I disagree. How should I put it? It's just that the money hasn't come in yet.

I had Grok pull up the total market cap of cryptocurrencies at the highest BTC prices in 2017, 2021, and 2025 for comparison, and it was quite disheartening to find out — the multiple of increase is shrinking. Why? It's still because the hot money hasn't fully flowed in.

Let's review the patterns of the last two bull markets

The wave of 2021: It was completely created by the Federal Reserve. Unlimited QE after the pandemic, interest rates dropped to nearly 0, and 4 trillion dollars were injected into the market. People had more money with nowhere to put it, so they speculated on stocks, real estate, and cryptocurrencies together. Bitcoin skyrocketed to 69,000 USD. To put it bluntly, it was a perfect storm of liquidity flood + institutional takeover + narrative support.

The 2017 Round: There was no QE, it was purely driven by retail FOMO. ICOs went crazy, and Ethereum and altcoins were flocked by retail investors. In December, CME futures were launched, opening up shorting channels, and people realized it was time to sell. Essentially, it was media hype + retail FOMO + ICO bubble, a path completely different from the institutional game of 2021.

Why hasn't 2025 started going crazy yet?

The Federal Reserve has changed its stance now, shifting from unlimited money printing to gradually tightening liquidity. This directly explains why the growth of the cryptocurrency market is so slow — the money coming in is not as aggressive as in 2021.

Let's take a look at this year's market: which sector has inflated its bubble to an absurd level? None. What we see is all about “pulling the drawer back and forth” — it rises and then falls, then gets pulled up again. This is a manifestation of insufficient funds, where local hotspots are just shifting the wall, turning around to cash out immediately.

Core Judgment

Don't get distracted by all those flashy narratives; just focus on one point: Has big money entered the market? Has the bubble inflated? Everything else is just noise.

What if we really enter a Bear Market? To be honest, the possibility is less than 5%. But if that day really comes, the strategy is very simple:

• BTC and U are the absolute main forces
• Withdraw to hardware wallet (the exchange may still encounter issues)
• Deposit U into the big protocol to earn some interest as living expenses.
• Just endure for another 4 years.

It's that simple and straightforward.