Hayes has made another bold statement: ZEC can rise to 20% of BTC market capitalization, and you are still entangled in short-term fluctuations?

The crypto community has been stirred up again these days by Arthur Hayes. BTC has fallen from 100,000 to 90,000, and this guy is instead crazily increasing the position in ZEC. Now ZEC has broken through 609 dollars, and its market capitalization has soared to the 15th position.

The key is that the reasons he provided are somewhat substantial.

The macro situation has changed

Hayes analyzed a core logic: global central banks have reversed from a rate hike cycle to a rate cut cycle, and Federal Reserve officials are starting to discuss insufficient reserves and the possibility of restarting QE. At the same time, politicians are all shouting “give benefits,” but no one dares to raise taxes on a large scale. Conclusion? In the next 12-18 months, credit will only expand, not contract.

In other words, the printing press has been restarted, and encryption is the most direct beneficiary in this game.

Why increase the position in ZEC?

He said this was “enlightened” by Naval. At dinner, Naval directly confronted him about his 2016 doubts regarding ZEC - the trust setup has been resolved through the Halo2 upgrade, the 20% mining tax was canceled two years ago, and the Japanese police have indeed cracked Monero.

Hayes decided on the spot to increase the position and even had the brokers buy, but 6 out of 8 refused - this instead sparked his interest. His current logic is: BTC has already been “hijacked” by institutions, and every day there are discussions about Larry Fink, the SEC, and ETFs, which is not the original Bitcoin. The narrative of privacy is the starting point for the next cycle, with ZEC targeting 20% of BTC's market capitalization.

The most heart-wrenching perspective

Hayes said that the best investors need to “fight with themselves” in their minds - they must have a long-term vision while also capturing short-term opportunities. He himself does not use leverage (ironically, as the inventor of perpetual contracts), and the reason is very straightforward: with leverage, you have to monitor the market 365×24 hours, and even a single day of inactivity could lead to liquidation. Instead of gambling, it’s better to invest a portion of your income in spot trades each month and then “forget it,” allowing the power of compound interest to work slowly.

In the end, he threw out a sentence: “Look at those things that are mocked and deemed vulgar, that is the starting point of the next cycle.” Movies, television, and the internet have all gone through this, and now Meme coins and privacy coins are too.

Market Signal

He emphasized that everything is reflected in the price. This round of altcoin cycle is not a VC project home ground, so the old OGs will complain about “no comparability”. But Solana has risen from 8 dollars at the end of last year to now, this number speaks for itself.

The topic is a bit brain-burning, but the core logic is this simple: central bank releases liquidity → demand for privacy rises → ZECs take off. Believe it or not.