Trump promised to distribute $2000 "tariff bonuses" to every American, and the encryption community went wild.

BTC rose by 1.75%, ETH increased by 3.32%, and privacy coins surged by double digits. The market's reaction is very real—during the distribution of stimulus checks in 2020, BTC skyrocketed from $4,000 to $69,000, and this time everyone naturally wants history to repeat itself.

But this story has flaws:

**The policy has not yet been implemented**. Trump has made the announcement, but the Supreme Court is still reviewing the legality of the tariffs. According to Polymarket's predictive market data, traders only give a 23% probability of approval. The smart money is actually not buying it.

**The source of money is very虚**. $19.5 billion in tariff revenue sounds like a lot, but the U.S. national debt is $37 trillion. Filling a swimming pool with coins is not as good as directly distributing it for short-term political gains.

**The inflation bomb is armed**. Tariffs raise costs, cash stimulates demand—double inflation. By the time you receive 2000 dollars, it may have already been halved. Not to mention the Federal Reserve may be forced to raise interest rates, at which point liquidity tightens, and risk assets are the first to suffer.

Simply put: Retail investors see stimulus checks and FOMO kicks in; the market has muscle memory. But this time, the dish didn't just appear out of nowhere; it's just the wine from the next table poured into your glass. It feels good to drink, but the cost is written on the back of the bill—printed in small letters "inflation."

The last person to leave the party has to pay the bill. This time, it might be us.