BTC has fallen again, this time from 105,800 to below 104,000, and ETH has plummeted as well. Many people saw over 8 billion dollars evaporate in market capitalization within 24 hours and panicked, shouting "The bear market has arrived."

But upon closer inspection, this is not a Bear Market signal at all; it is simply the U.S. government shutdown + the auction of U.S. Treasuries + the cooling expectations for interest rate cuts, which have suffocated the market's liquidity.

The most heartbreaking detail is:
• In the past 24 hours, liquidations amounted to $1.268 billion, with long positions at $1.139 billion — the main players precisely harvested the leveraged positions of small retail investors during this low liquidity moment.
• On-chain data is clear at a glance: Retail investors holding 1-10 BTC are selling frantically, but the whale holdings have remained unchanged, still hoarding coins at $104,500-$111,000.
• MicroStrategy took advantage of the fall to buy 397 BTC for $45.6 million, with a total holding of over 640,000—institutions are bottom fishing against the trend.

In simple terms, this is a short-term false drop caused by the "money shortage," not a trend reversal. The Federal Reserve's reverse repos have been halved from 51.8 billion to 23.7 billion, and the government bond auction has forcibly siphoned off 163 billion from the stock market and the crypto market, leaving retail investors powerless.

Once the U.S. government shutdown is resolved and liquidity returns, the market will rebound. The crypto market is the most sensitive to liquidity; it falls early and rebounds early. Now is not the time to panic; it’s the time to avoid reckless selling, not to go all-in, and to wait for signals.