#美联储恢复降息进程 Gold surged violently in a single day, breaking through $4190, with US stocks rising for four consecutive days. The market's betting probability on a rate cut in December surged to 86.4%—this looks like a highly certain celebration.

But the reality may not be so simple.

The market is wildly pricing in interest rate cuts: the US dollar index has fallen to 99.7, global central banks continue to increase their gold reserves, and risk assets are collectively celebrating. However, several key details are worth being cautious about:

Powell's latest statement clearly mentioned that "a rate cut in December is far from a done deal," and there are significant divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the policy path. Current inflation data remains at 2.7%, still a considerable distance from the 2% target. More troublesome is that some key economic data have periods of gaps, meaning that decision-makers are actually making judgments based on incomplete information.

The script of Wall Street popping champagne early is not new. In 2019, the market bet on a rate cut with a probability of over 90%, but the Federal Reserve stood pat, and US stocks fell more than 5% that week. The resulting panic from this expectation gap is often more deadly than the rate hike itself.

Entering the market at a high now is essentially betting that the Federal Reserve will yield to market pressure. But if the policy falls short of expectations, who will take the last baton?

Stay alert, waiting for clear signals is more important than FOMO. How long do you think this market trend can last?