Understood ✅ The impact of the U.S. economic policy in December 2025 on the crypto world and the issue of alt season under the four-year cycle that you are following is indeed the current market focus. Overall analysis indicates that there are limited policies in December that will practically boost the crypto world, while the traditional four-year cycle theory has clearly failed, and the alt season is likely to be postponed until 2026.

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📌 **Potential Economic Policies Impacting the Crypto World in the USA in December 2025**
From the existing information, there is currently no clear direct policy in the U.S. regarding cryptocurrencies as of December, but the following macro and regulatory dynamics may indirectly influence the market:

### 1. **Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations (Liquidity Easing)**
- **Background**: In September 2025, the Federal Reserve has initiated its first rate cut (25 basis points), and the market generally expects another rate cut of 25 basis points in December and possibly a halt to the balance sheet reduction (analysts like Hong Hao predict a probability of over 60%).
- **Impact Path**: Lowering interest rates will reduce the cost of dollar financing and drive some funds into risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Historical data shows that during the Federal Reserve's unlimited QE in 2020, the price of Bitcoin increased by over 400%.
- **Uncertainty**: Current U.S. inflation is still above the 2% target (around 3%), and the government shutdown has distorted economic data. The Federal Reserve may adopt a "slow and steady" strategy (as per economist Timothy Taylor), and the level of liquidity release may be weaker than market expectations.

### 2. **Stablecoin regulatory framework implemented (long-term structural benefit)**
- **Policy Progress**: The GENIUS Act, passed in May 2025, requires stablecoin issuers to have 100% reserves in USD or U.S. Treasury bonds. In October 2025, after Trump pardoned Binance's Zhao Changpeng, the U.S. explicitly included the crypto world in its strategic support.
- **Actual Effect**: The stablecoin market (approximately $232 billion) will be converted into a tool for purchasing U.S. Treasury bonds, indirectly enhancing the transmission of U.S. dollar liquidity to the crypto world; however, the bill prohibits stablecoins from paying interest, which may suppress some speculative capital inflow.

### 3. **Altcoin ETF approval accelerated (fund entry channel opened)**
- **Market Dynamics**: In October 2025, the first batch of altcoin ETFs (SOL, LTC, HEDERA) will be launched in the United States, with an additional 155 ETFs covering 35 assets awaiting approval, and the total scale is expected to exceed the initial inflow into Bitcoin ETFs ($50 billion).
- **Potential Impact**: If more altcoin ETFs are approved in December, it may trigger a phase of capital rotation, but the current approval pace is concentrated in October-November, and December may be in a policy window.

**Conclusion**: In December, the United States' "direct booster policy" for the crypto world is limited, primarily relying on the liquidity benefits brought by interest rate cuts, with policy strength weaker than the 2020 QE cycle.

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📉 **Four-Year Cycle Theory Fails: Alt Season May Be Delayed Until 2026**
The traditional "Bitcoin four-year halving cycle" (peak seen 20 months after halving) has been disrupted due to the following factors, and the altcoin market is likely to be delayed: