Next week, the Fed enters a quiet period, and a 25 basis point rate cut in December seems almost certain? Don't rush to conclusions. The probability given by the interest rate futures market is 80%—the other 20% depends on the data.

Next week, economic data will come in a flurry, each of which could stir the market's nerves.

**The ISM Manufacturing PMI for November will be released on Monday**. Last time it was 48.7, this time it is expected to be 49, still struggling in the contraction zone. The manufacturing sector has been flat for a whole year, and it is unrealistic to expect it to suddenly rise. As long as the data fluctuates between 47 and 50, everyone will treat it as nothing. But what if it jumps above 50? Risk assets will immediately tighten - economic recovery means the necessity for interest rate cuts is weakened.

**Wednesday sees ADP employment data take the spotlight**. Previous value 42,000, expected 20,000. A cooling employment data is originally a strong argument for interest rate cuts, but the problem is that this time there is no non-farm data to rely on, and ADP is forced to take the place of "temporary non-farm". This thing has a flaw: it often does not match the official non-farm data and occasionally can be inexplicably strong to an outrageous degree.

**The highlight is the core PCE for September on Friday**. It is expected to drop from 2.9% to 2.8%. Although the data lags by two months, this is the inflation indicator that the Fed cares about the most. Recently, both CPI and PPI have been soft, indicating that the impact of tariffs on prices is not as severe as imagined, and the PCE for September will likely continue to show a mild trend.

Data week is here, and the market is about to make some choices.