The Truth Behind Tesla's Roller Coaster Market in 2025: AI Dreams vs Reality Gap

TSL is having a tough year. At the beginning of the year, the stock price plummeted due to tariffs and the trade war, but later it surged 60% thanks to concepts like AI, Bots taxi, and the Optimus robot. However, the latest data has poured cold water on this —

Q3 Financial Report: Appears Glamorous, But Actually Has Pitfalls

TSL Q3 revenue 28.2 billion exceeded Wall Street's expectations of 26.4 billion. Sounds great, but it gets awkward when you look further down:

• Adjusted Earnings per Share: $0.50 vs Expected $0.55 (Missed Expectations)
• Gross Margin (excluding regulatory points): 15.4% vs expected 15.6% (not meeting the target again)

The core issue is what? This surge in revenue primarily relies on the rush to purchase electric vehicles before the end of September to secure tax incentives, not on long-term competitiveness.

Self-driving bragging is becoming increasingly difficult

The most heartbreaking warning comes from Tesla's former AI head, Andrej Karpathy. This guy is the mastermind behind the Autopilot and self-driving projects, and he bluntly stated: Don't be fooled by the progress of Tesla and Waymo; the problem of fully autonomous driving is far from solved.

How much does reality slap you in the face?

• The Robotaxi released by TSL in Austin, Texas this summer still requires human supervisors in the car.
• Waymo gave up this requirement as early as 2020.
• Lawsuits against TSL's “fully autonomous driving” have piled up, resulting in multiple payouts.

Musk has been saying for years that “autonomous driving is almost complete,” but the gap between promise and reality is like a black hole.

How outrageous is the valuation now?

The market value of TSL is 1.5 trillion USD, which is several times more than the combined value of Ford and General Motors. Where does this valuation support come from? Mainly from speculation:

• 1 million Bots put into operation
• 1 million units of Optimus Bots
• 10 million FSD subscriptions
• Core profit reaches 400 billion USD

Take another look at the compensation plan just passed by Musk—a maximum value of $1 trillion, most of which is unlocked at these milestones. The question is: how reliable are these milestones? No one really knows.

Investors need to clarify one thing

TSL is no longer just a pure car company; it is betting on a future technology empire—AI, Bots, and taxi services. The potential rewards of this bet are enormous, but so are the risks. When a company's valuation is based on future promises rather than current earnings, every delay or failure can trigger an explosion.

TSL has indeed made long-term investors a lot of money, but at the current price level? Too many dreams have already been priced in.