Yesterday morning's sudden fall of BTC left many people stunned, and the market that had just stabilized started to panic again. However, after calming down and analyzing the data, it seems that things might not be that bad.

On December 1st, the EARL (Entity Adjusted Realized Loss) was 820 million USD. What does this figure mean? The loss on November 21st was a whopping 2.34 billion USD. In comparison, yesterday's wave was actually much milder.

Looking at the exchange level again - on December 1st, the realized losses flowing into the exchange were only 80 million USD, while on November 21st, it was 320 million. Even the two days on November 14th and 17th were worse than this time.

Do you remember what I said on November 24? At that time, I judged that the EARL at the level of 21 was probably the short-term peak. As long as there is no series of negative news bombarding the market, even if the price falls further, the scale of panic selling should theoretically gradually narrow.

What is the most critical signal right now? It is to see if EARL can keep making lower lows as the price falls. If such a decreasing trend actually appears, it can basically confirm that the panic selling is clearing out. This is one of the core conditions for a short-term bottom formation.

In simple terms - the panic selling being finished does not mean the bottom is immediately in sight, but if the panic selling has not completely ceased, then it is definitely not the bottom. From this perspective, the current data at least indicates one thing: the situation is not worsening, and that is enough.