#数字货币市场回调 $BTC $ETH

⚠️ The Federal Reserve is in a heated debate! Where should the interest rate cuts stop?

To put it simply, this time it's not a technical issue, but a dispute over policy direction. Since 2012, officials have never been this divided in their assessment of the "neutral interest rate"—the forecast range in September was directly adjusted to 2.6% to 3.9%, a difference of 1.3 percentage points. Powell himself acknowledged that the committee has "strong disagreements" on whether to prioritize "stabilizing prices or preserving jobs."

🎯 The question arises: What is the neutral interest rate?

This thing is like dark matter, invisible and intangible, relying only on guesses. Williams considers it the core of policy, stating that the consequences of guessing wrong are severe. Theoretically, it is determined by long-term factors such as population structure and technological progress, but now there is no consensus even on that: Kashkari believes AI will push it up, while Milan thinks Trump's policies may lower it, and Williams emphasizes that structural pressures are still present.

📉 The hawkish stance has begun to hit the brakes.

Stanley bluntly stated that the greater the divergence, the more confident the hawks are in preventing further rate cuts. Paulson warned more directly: interest rates may already be close to neutral, and continuing to lower them could easily shift from "constraining" to "stimulating," which would be problematic. After a cumulative reduction of over 100 basis points, many officials have begun to hesitate about whether to continue easing.

🔮 Personnel changes in 2026 may become variables.

Trump is reportedly planning to nominate a more dovish new chairman, which could tilt the entire decision-making scale towards loosening. However, there are also pragmatists like Musalem and Hamak, who place greater importance on the actual effects of the financial environment—after all, economic data is the hard indicator.

Former Chairman Haque summed it up quite realistically: the neutral interest rate is just a tool; what really determines policy are employment and inflation data. For the crypto market, this means that the uncertainty of liquidity expectations will persist for a while.