📌The FED's balance sheet reduction program (QT) has ended!
➢This means that the tens of billions of dollars in liquidity withdrawn from the market over the past month will no longer decrease and may increase again over time!
➢But this certainly doesn't indicate that we're entering a period of frenzied quantitative easing like the one during the COVID-19 pandemic! Nevertheless, we can't say it won't have a calming effect. Because the end of QT may ease funding conditions over time. The pressure on players struggling to secure funding to "sell assets and generate cash" will diminish!
➢Therefore, we may see a small "relief" rally in risky assets (especially growth/story stocks, #Bitcoin, etc.) in the short term!
➢In the medium to long term, the situation is different; If the Fed simply leaves its balance sheet unchanged and doesn't switch back to expansion, the situation should be interpreted not as "too loose money" but as "neutralizing tightening," which would provide positive but limited support for the indices!
➢If macro data weakens and the Fed returns to a QE-like expansion in the future, then the liquidity story could become a much stronger bullish catalyst for equity markets. Is this a possibility? Yes, it is. But we're not there yet!
🔶️In summary: The end of QT alone isn't a mega-bullish reason, but the removal of structural pressure on liquidity could provide significant relief, especially for risky assets!
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📌The FED's balance sheet reduction program (QT) has ended!
➢This means that the tens of billions of dollars in liquidity withdrawn from the market over the past month will no longer decrease and may increase again over time!
➢But this certainly doesn't indicate that we're entering a period of frenzied quantitative easing like the one during the COVID-19 pandemic! Nevertheless, we can't say it won't have a calming effect. Because the end of QT may ease funding conditions over time. The pressure on players struggling to secure funding to "sell assets and generate cash" will diminish!
➢Therefore, we may see a small "relief" rally in risky assets (especially growth/story stocks, #Bitcoin, etc.) in the short term!
➢In the medium to long term, the situation is different; If the Fed simply leaves its balance sheet unchanged and doesn't switch back to expansion, the situation should be interpreted not as "too loose money" but as "neutralizing tightening," which would provide positive but limited support for the indices!
➢If macro data weakens and the Fed returns to a QE-like expansion in the future, then the liquidity story could become a much stronger bullish catalyst for equity markets. Is this a possibility? Yes, it is. But we're not there yet!
🔶️In summary: The end of QT alone isn't a mega-bullish reason, but the removal of structural pressure on liquidity could provide significant relief, especially for risky assets!