The latest U.S. initial jobless claims came in significantly below market expectations—what signal is hidden behind this number? For the crypto market, is this a bearish event that will trigger a sell-off, or will the negative news be fully priced in and turn into an opportunity?

First, the conclusion: short-term bearish, but the devil is in the details.

**Strong employment data = a more "hawkish" Fed**
A drop in jobless claims means the labor market is still holding up. In this scenario, what reason does the Fed have to rush into rate cuts? The market's previously expected "rate cut forecast" may be delayed. As long as the high interest rate environment persists, high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies will continue to struggle—after all, most money is flowing into Treasuries for yield, so who wants to bet on volatility?

**Stronger dollar, crypto prices suffer**
Robust economic data typically pushes up the US Dollar Index (DXY). There’s a long-standing pattern between the dollar and Bitcoin: when the dollar rises, crypto prices fall. This time is no exception—if DXY remains strong, capital may be siphoned out of the crypto market.

**Will institutional funds become more cautious?**
More importantly, watch ETF capital flows. If the macro outlook shifts to “higher rates for longer,” institutional funds entering via Bitcoin ETFs may slow their pace. Hedge funds are already sensitive to macro data, and once the winds change, they pull out even faster than retail investors.

So, while this jobless data may seem like just another economic indicator, it’s actually redefining the market’s expectations for the “rate cut timeline.” In the short term, the crypto market may continue to bottom out under the shadow of high interest rates.