A co-founder of a well-known incubator recently discussed an interesting topic—why is it so hard to make a clear bullish or bearish call on L1 public chains these days? His explanation is that there’s simply no unified standard for their economic attributes or valuation methods, and the market is still arguing about it to this day.



To put it bluntly: if you want to make money in this market, you have to bet in advance on the value logic that “everyone will eventually agree on.” The most awkward thing about the current L1 track is that the tech crowd focuses on technical metrics, the capital crowd looks at TVL data, and the ecosystem crowd watches developer numbers—everyone has their own standard. By the time the market finally unifies its valuation framework, the real opportunities may already be gone. So instead of copying others’ homework, it’s better to copy their forward-looking mindset.
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CodeSmellHuntervip
· 12-04 16:45
This is just betting on future consensus—whoever can guess the valuation standard correctly wins. L1s are like Schrödinger's assets right now; by the time the framework is unified, it's basically history. Betting on forward-looking narratives sounds nice, but in reality, most people are just gambling. The tech crowd, the capital crowd, and the ecosystem crowd all do their own thing—who the hell actually gets to decide? Instead of waiting for consensus, you might as well just see who has more money to throw around.
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digital_archaeologistvip
· 12-04 16:43
Isn’t this just gambling on the timing difference of consensus formation? If you’re early, you get rekt; if you’re late, you miss the opportunity. --- To put it bluntly, everyone is just doing their own thing now; no one knows whose standard will win in the end. --- Foresight... sounds easy, but how many people can actually see things correctly? --- By the time standards are unified, it’s already too late—this logic makes sense to me. --- Feels like betting on L1 now is just gambling on an uncertain future consensus—it’s kind of shaky. --- Hard to handle—tech folks and capital folks are each saying their own thing, and without a conclusion, who dares to bet big? --- So does entering L1 now really just come down to pure luck? --- Getting in early on those narratives that later become consensus—that’s the real money-making logic. --- Once the standards are unified, the real opportunities are gone—can’t argue with that. --- The problem is: how do you know which logic will become consensus in the end? Who can predict that accurately?
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LiquidatedAgainvip
· 12-04 16:41
Well... to put it bluntly, it's just betting on consensus. No one knows who's right now, everyone's just making up stories. --- I fucking went all in just looking at the TVL data, and now I'm bleeding hard... you guys go ahead and keep being forward-looking. --- By the time a unified valuation framework exists, I'll probably have been liquidated long ago. Might as well go all in and bet on one now. --- This is why I hate L1s—everyone's using a different yardstick, so why should I trust yours? --- Forward-looking? Wake up, that's just a gambler's self-consolation. I've been played too many times already. --- The problem is, who knows which logic will win? Anyway, my liquidation price is already just around the corner, haha.
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WhaleWatchervip
· 12-04 16:36
That's why the L1 track is so surreal—everyone is fighting their own battles and there's no unified answer. The key is still to bet on that consensus, but no one knows what the consensus will look like. Like I said before, by the time the standards are unified, it'll be too late. This round is basically a playground for players who benefit from information asymmetry. Tech factions, capital factions, and ecosystem factions all look down on each other—doesn't that make this the best time to go long? Instead of waiting for an answer, it's better to bet on foresight. Couldn't agree more. Right now, L1s are like black boxes that no one can price, and that's actually the opportunity.
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