Here’s an old pattern: every year around this time, when BTC surges, it’s basically handing out year-end bonuses to those folks in Europe and the US.

The logic is simple—institutions position themselves early, retail investors get excited by the rally and rush in, then what happens when the Christmas holidays arrive? The big players cash out and leave, off to enjoy their holidays. It happens every year, yet people keep falling for it.

So, if you want to profit from this pre-holiday rally, remember to close all your positions before Christmas Eve. Don’t fantasize about Santa bringing you any surprises 😂

Switching topics. I’ve been watching the performance of a certain BTC restaking project lately—it’s the classic “sexy concept, harsh reality.” The price is shaky, funds are flowing out. What does that indicate? The market is still in wait-and-see mode.

It reminds me of when DeFi first came out—everyone was talking it up, but very few were actually putting money in.

What’s the issue? The whole market is chasing the next big thing. AI gets hyped, Meme coins go crazy for a while, then RWA takes over, and the stories from the BTC ecosystem don’t get much attention. On-chain asset management for institutions? Sounds sophisticated, but investors want a clear path to profits. High transparency is a plus, but transparency doesn’t equal profitability—everyone knows that.

But on the flip side, if projects like these can withstand the pressure during a bear market and keep refining their products, when the next BTC narrative truly takes off, that first-mover advantage will be valuable.

That’s always how the market works—build your position when it’s cold, cash in when it’s hot. The key is which side you’re on.