Professional Data Analysis and Market Outlook for the Crypto Market Today

Core Viewpoint: The market is currently in a critical quiet period ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with emotions highly concentrated and potential for increased price volatility.

Bitcoin Sentiment Change on December 8

On the day, BTC fell from $92,000 to $89,300, a drop of about 3%. Sentiment shifted from "cautiously optimistic" to "neutral to bearish." On-chain data shows long-term holder selling pressure has been exhausted, but ETF net outflows have increased, and short-term capital is taking profit and exiting.

ETH encountered resistance above $3,220 and dropped to $3,134, with short-term sentiment marked as "under pressure." Declines in DeFi total value locked and falling implied volatility in options together suppressed buying interest, while the market awaits guidance from the Fed's decision.

Technical and Macro Factors

Bitcoin: Heavy trading in the $92k-$95k resistance zone; losing $88k triggers programmatic selling.
Ethereum: Weekly 50MA lost, funding rate flips negative, short covering could bring a brief rebound.
Macro: US dollar rebounds, US Treasury yields rise, overall risk assets under pressure.
Key Events and Market Developments Today (December 9)

Critical Quiet Period Ahead of Fed FOMC Meeting
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on December 10, with the market broadly expecting a 25 basis point rate cut. However, due to the US government shutdown, key inflation and employment data are missing, increasing uncertainty. Federal funds futures indicate the market has priced in a 25 basis point cut with a probability of about 80%. Before the final decision is announced, market sentiment will be highly sensitive, and any developments could trigger significant volatility.

Key US Economic Data Released Today
Multiple US economic indicators will be released today that will directly impact market expectations for the Fed’s policy path and are critical for determining market direction.

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ADP Employment Change
08:15 (EST)
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Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)
10:00 (EST)
On-Chain and ETF Fund Flow Analysis
On-chain data shows that after a sharp correction in November, long-term holders (LTH) selling pressure for Bitcoin hit a cyclical low when the price dropped to $80,000. This indicates that as the price rebounds to the $90,000 range, the wave of spot-driven selling may be nearly exhausted, signaling a shift in market structure.

Institutional Adoption and Market Infrastructure Progress
Institutional adoption of cryptocurrency has reached a critical turning point. BlackRock’s Bitcoin holdings have surged 255.47% since approval, now totaling approximately 776,474.65 Bitcoins. At the same time, the regulatory environment is becoming clearer, providing more convenience for institutional entry.

Key Focus for Today (December 9)

1. Key US Economic Data: The ADP Employment Change and JOLTS report are crucial for judging the Fed’s future policy path and will directly affect market sentiment.
2. Bitcoin Price Dynamics: Closely watch whether it can hold above $92,000, which would be an important signal of a shift in market sentiment.
3. Institutional and Regulatory Developments: While there are no major events today, watch for any surprise news regarding ETF approval progress or regulatory policy, as this could become a new catalyst for the market.