Bitcoin's 60% Drawdown Risk: How Electoral Cycles and Macro Conditions Shape Crypto Markets

Source: CryptoNewsNet Original Title: 10x Research founder warns of 60% Bitcoin drop tied to 2026 US midterms Original Link:

Market Prediction & Analysis

Markus Thielen, founder of a leading digital asset investment research firm, has predicted that Bitcoin could experience a significant 60% drawdown aligned with the 2026 US midterm election cycle.

Thielen highlights historical patterns showing that Bitcoin has tended to decline by approximately 60% on average during midterm election years. He points to several factors that could amplify downside pressure:

• Weakening Institutional Flows: Reduced capital inflows from institutional investors
• Bearish On-Chain Signals: Deteriorating metrics in blockchain data analysis
• Wallet Underwater Status: Newer wallets currently showing 10-20% losses, potentially forcing capitulation selling

Key Quote

“Bitcoin has tended to go down by around 60% on average during those years, unless we really come into a period where inflation prints lower, where the Fed becomes really incredibly dovish, which they might become with a new Fed chair.”

Thielen also noted: “The newer wallets are all underwater now by 10%, 20%. And at one point, they just have to sell.”

Market Context

The analysis underscores how macroeconomic and electoral events can trigger steep corrections in crypto markets, not merely in traditional financial markets. The research firm specializes in analyzing market trends, derivatives positioning, and funding dynamics for digital assets, with recent studies linking Bitcoin’s downside potential to unexpected macroeconomic triggers beyond conventional market factors.