BTC, ETH key support breakthroughs, resistance, and the Fed interest rate decision

🇺🇸 Power struggles are raging in the Supreme Court, chaos is brewing within the Fed's personnel, and the White House is wielding the tariff stick at its neighbor Mexico—three major issues taking turns in the spotlight.

Similarly, last night's livestream explained from multiple perspectives—logic, fundamentals, Fed rate cuts, central bank rate hikes—why the long-term bullish outlook remains, despite persistent short-term weakness. We also discussed the pros and cons behind the current BTC and ETH frenzy. After touching the 92,000 resistance, it quickly headed toward the 89,000 level.

Bitcoin: Short-term pullback showing strength, but yesterday’s high area saw resistance and a drop. If an unexpected rally occurs, the pullback could deepen. The current outlook is not optimistic for a significant move higher; as long as bears hold the 89,500-90,500 area, the bears remain dominant. For short-term key levels, you can continue to play the pullbacks, while for larger breakouts, wait for a pullback and stabilization before buying in.

ETH: On the hourly chart, a head and shoulders top is forming—can 2,900 hold? If the head and shoulders top materializes, short-term bears will also take the lead. Last night’s spike initially formed the right shoulder of the pattern, but more consolidation and another candlestick are needed. If it continues to close bearish, the right shoulder will be confirmed. Intraday, it will continue to move in sync with BTC.

Mid- to long-term outlook remains bullish, but short-term is still focused on surges followed by declines. Overall, the market structure is in adjustment, and frequent trading is not wise. During the European and pre-US sessions, prioritize shorting at highs, with minor long opportunities for smaller timeframes.

BTC weekly is still in a sideways rectangular consolidation, with key resistance at the descending trendline (92,500-93,000) and key support at the lower Bollinger Band 88,000. On the daily chart, it's moving within a triangle consolidation; a break above the triangle upper edge (upper Bollinger Band) targets the 96,000-100,000( area (including FVG gap + Fibonacci 0.5-0.618)). A drop below the triangle lower edge (middle Bollinger Band) means continued range-bound action. Daily indicators MACD and RSI golden cross suggests further upside risk for bull traps! For short-term, focus on the 4-hour chart, and seize short-term opportunities as they arise.

For BTC, short around the 90,600-91,000 area, add 5%-8% to positions above 92,000🔝 resistance, and only consider defense strategies after a breakout. On smaller timeframes, bearish pullbacks to support signal the overall direction. Watch the 88,500-87,000 bottom area, with strong support at 86,000-85,500 if 87,000 breaks.

For ETH, short in the 3,150-3,180 area, 🎯3,080-3,000; if it effectively breaks below 3,000, watch 2,900-2,930#美联储降息预测 $BTC $ETH .