#数字货币市场洞察 The structure of US debt is triggering deep changes in global liquidity, and this shockwave may ultimately hit the core of the crypto market.

The numbers are clear: in the past 12 months, US short-term Treasury debt increased by $25.4 trillion, bringing the total to $36.6 trillion, accounting for 69% of all debt. To put it another way—this is like using a credit card’s “minimum payment” to plug a 30-year mortgage hole; the entire system is accumulating risk.

Here’s the key point: if inflation rebounds and the Fed is forced to raise rates, debt costs will skyrocket without limit, and at that point the “inverted pyramid” could completely collapse.

**What does this mean for traders?**

In the short term, the Treasury’s continuous bond issuance is equivalent to releasing dollar liquidity. With more liquidity, risk assets (including BTC) gain upward momentum—this is the logic behind a “passive bull market.” But this logic is extremely fragile.

If rate hikes really arrive, the opportunity cost for non-yielding assets will surge. High-leverage positions in this environment are like dancing on a landmine. Risk assets will face broad sell-offs—this is the toughest headwind for crypto.

**The deeper shift is here—a re-selection of trust systems.**

When the market starts to doubt the sustainability of the dollar system, capital will split: those who trust traditional finance will increase allocations to Treasuries, while those who believe in decentralization will redefine BTC as a “sovereign-grade safe haven asset” rather than just a risk asset.

**Practical recommendations:**

Closely monitor CPI data, the Fed’s dot plot, and Treasury issuance plans—these are the leading indicators. In terms of portfolio allocation, BTC can serve as a macro hedge, while also keeping cash reserves in stablecoins. It’s best to stay away from leverage right now.

Be prepared with two scenarios: one is a US economic soft landing with continued liquidity-driven rallies; the other is a crisis, in which capital preservation comes first and you’ll need to watch whether BTC truly fulfills its safe-haven role.

The dollar debt pressure cooker is heating up, and Bitcoin’s ultimate test may arrive sooner than we think. The real opportunity belongs only to those who can stay clear-headed amid uncertainty.