#ETH走势分析 The Fed's interest rate meeting has become the center of attention!

This week’s rate decision is being called a “drama of division” rarely seen in years. The market’s focus has long since shifted—not on whether there will be a rate cut, but on how deep the internal divisions on the FOMC are and what policy signals Powell will send.

Institutions are debating heatedly: Janus Henderson bluntly said, “In the long run, the impact of a single rate meeting is minimal; short-term fluctuations are normal, and the real focus is on policy direction in the first half of 2026.” Wilmington Trust, on the other hand, believes “the market has fully priced in rate cut expectations, and the core of current trading is decoding policy signals—the Fed may emphasize caution and repeatedly stress data dependence.”

There are also many pessimists: some point out that the probability of a rate cut may not be as high as the market generally expects; the key lies in the voting results and Powell’s exact wording. Nomura even warned that “the market is clearly underpricing the risk of no rate cut.”

There’s another variable: four regional Fed presidents have recently changed, and their stance—whether they’ll support or remain neutral—adds suspense on the policy front.

Tonight’s policy announcement is like opening a mystery box. The market’s final trajectory depends on the combination of “policy signals + voting results.” Whether the expected returns can be achieved depends on what kind of market response this round of decisions brings.