#ETH走势分析 Escaping the Roller Coaster: The Way of the Prudent Market Maker

In prediction markets, some go all in, while others collect rent.

To rake in long-term and stable cash flow, you need a dual firewall design: the first layer screens with data and algorithms, the second is guarded by your own judgment. Our ultimate goal is simple—cut out the heartbeat, keep only the returns.

Defense 1: Only Play “Boring” Markets

The secret to prudent market making is to avoid anything that spikes your adrenaline.

First, steer clear of those ECG-like price swings. Focus on low-volatility markets—this is fundamental. Then constrain yourself to operate within the 0.10 to 0.90 price band, and avoid those extreme 2% swings—that’s fertile ground for black swans.

Defense 2: Feed Yourself with “Official Wages”

Since you’re not betting on direction, profits must come from official rewards.

First, filter for pools with daily rewards above 1.00 USDC—that’s the baseline for worthwhile markets. Then, among markets with similar yields, always go for the one with the lowest volatility. High returns with low risk is the true cost-performance ceiling.

Defense 3: Don’t Be the Exit Liquidity Fool

Liquidity is your life vest—the market depth must be over $10,000, or you’ll barely be able to move. Volume shouldn’t be too extreme either—too little and no one plays, too much and you’re an easy target for whales and insiders. What you want is to profit from retail trader slippage.

There’s also a time limit: only touch markets that resolve within 15 to 90 days, so your risk period is short and you’re not waiting forever.

Defense 4: Use Your Brain to Filter Invisible Traps

This is the essence of the second layer of protection. For risks that machines can’t see, you need to use common sense to avoid them.

Three iron rules: absolutely avoid political and legal black swans, skip markets with unclear or ambiguous rules, and stay away from trending topics—money is easier in niche markets.

What Does a Perfect Market Look Like?

When a market has all four features, it’s time to act: calm (no drama in the past two weeks), generous (official rewards are ample), popular but not overheated (retail is playing but it’s not a nationwide topic), and clear rules (black or white, with one to two months until resolution).

In short, prudent market making is about earning patient money—the rent for your time.