Interesting divergence shaping up ahead of the Fed meeting this week. Market consensus? Rate cut incoming. Futures traders are pricing it in at roughly 80% probability.

But here's the curveball: UniCredit isn't buying it. The Italian banking giant thinks the Fed holds steady instead.

Why does this matter? Central bank policy drives liquidity across all markets - stocks, bonds, crypto included. When rates drop, risk assets typically catch a bid. When expectations miss reality? Volatility spikes.

The setup creates asymmetric scenarios. If the Fed cuts as expected, markets might already be positioned. But if UniCredit's contrarian call proves correct and rates stay put, we could see sharp repricing across the board.

Worth watching how this plays out. Fed decisions ripple through every corner of finance, and being on the wrong side of consensus can be expensive.