#美联储启动新一轮降息周期 the Fed's interest rate meeting is about to fall - whether this meeting can determine the rise and fall of the currency circle in the near future.

The expected 25 basis point rate cut is basically a foregone conclusion, but the real focus is on the wording. Policymakers send dovish signals (continue to cut interest rates) on one hand and put the brakes on the market on the other - this contradictory posture is most likely to create market volatility.

There are many differences within the Fed: the weak employment camp advocates accelerating the pace of easing, while the inflation guards call for holding back, and the dot plot will most likely reflect expectations that the pace of interest rate cuts may slow down this year. The number of negative votes may not be underestimated.

From a trading point of view, these 24 hours are a high-risk window - the landing of a positive signal does not mean a safe entry, even if there is a word of pause in interest rate cuts, it may trigger an instant dive. Looking ahead, the Fed's balance sheet trend is more critical: once the bond buying process is restarted, it is equivalent to quietly releasing liquidity, which is a long-term good for risk assets.

The general rhythm is to grind the bottom repeatedly, but when the liquidity floodgate really opens, the bottom taker has a chance. Whether to retreat bravely tonight or wait for the waterfall to pick up chips, each risk tolerance has the final say.