Is there a nearly 90% chance of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December? Market expectations for January next year are divided.

2025-12-10 18:52:18

【Bi Ti】CME’s Federal Reserve Watch Tool has updated with the latest data. A 25 basis point cut in December? The market assigns an 89.4% probability, with only 10.6% expecting no change.

Looking at January next year: the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut reaches 68.5%, a hold at only 7.8%, while the hawks are betting on a 50 basis point cut at 23.8%.

The data is in front of you, what do you think about this move?

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GasFeeTherapist

· 12-10 19:22

89.4% this number is a bit high, I always feel like the market is betting on a pre-written script.

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GraphGuru

· 12-10 19:22

89.4%? This probability feels a bit too full, I have a feeling something unexpected might happen.

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MetaNeighbor

· 12-10 19:21

89.4% This probability is really quite outrageous; it feels like the market is all betting on a rate cut.

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DefiPlaybook

· 12-10 19:11

According to data, the rate cut expectations for December are quite solid—89.4% vs 10.6%. This level of divergence indicates a high market consensus. It is worth noting that by January, these expectations start to fracture, with 23.8% of the more aggressive investors doubling down on a 50 basis point cut, subtly revealing uncertainties about the subsequent policy path. From three perspectives: 1) December is almost a certainty 2) January is the real divergence point 3) The 7.8% probability of maintaining the status quo can already be ignored. A risk reminder: such expectation differences are part of the market pricing mechanism, and the actual outcome often defies these numerical gaps.

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