Federal Reserve Meeting Summary - December 2025

The US Federal Reserve continues on a rate-cutting path amid high inflation and a slowing economy: What does this mean for the markets?

📝 First: The Main Decision

Interest rate cut of 25 basis points to a range of 3.50% – 3.75%.
This is the third consecutive cut since September 2025 after a full year of holding rates steady.

🏦 Monetary Policy and Market Operations

Commenced Treasury bond purchases on December 12 as part of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet restructuring.
A clear sign of a gradual easing of monetary policy and liquidity support.

📉 Inflation and Price Stability

Inflation has risen compared to the beginning of the current year.
It remains above the 2% target, placing the Fed in a delicate position between:
Lowering rates to stimulate the economy
And combating high inflation

👷 Labor Market

Emerging increasing negative risks in the labor market.
Slowing job growth and rising unemployment benefit claims.
Unemployment rate stood at 4.4% in September 2025 despite adding 119,000 jobs.

💼 Economic Activity

The US economy is expanding but at a moderate pace.
Data indicate a mix of:
Slowing employment
And relatively balanced economic expansion

📊 Level of Uncertainty

The Fed confirms that economic uncertainty remains high.
Members are divided sharply over the interest rate path in 2026 and beyond.
This reflects ambiguity in inflation and economic growth forecasts.

📈 Next Interest Rate Path

Despite consecutive cuts, the Fed’s statement indicates that future cuts are not guaranteed.
The decision will depend entirely on:
Inflation data
Labor market strength
And macroeconomic developments

💬 Potential Impacts on Cryptocurrency Markets

Divergence in interest rate expectations may increase volatility in financial markets.
Bond purchases reflect a gradual tilt toward easing, which could support high-risk assets like Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.
Positive effects will remain conditional on continued inflation decline in the coming months.

📝 Summary

Summary of the Federal Reserve meeting:

The Fed’s actions suggest a gradual shift toward a more accommodative policy despite inflation remaining above target, reflecting growing concern over economic slowdown and labor market conditions. Continued bond purchases confirm the Fed’s desire to support liquidity and prevent further tightening. Although the rate has been cut for the third time, the interest rate path for 2026 remains uncertain due to conflicting economic data. This mix of cautious easing and uncertainty could lead to broader market volatility. As for the crypto sector, it may benefit from the easing bias, but success depends on inflation trends in the coming months.

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