Standard Chartered reduces Bitcoin forecast for 2025 to US$ 100,000

Source: PortaldoBitcoin Original Title: Forget US$ 200,000: Standard Chartered Drops Bitcoin Forecast for 2025 Original Link: With Bitcoin’s bullish trend coming to an end after poor performance in Q4, the British multinational bank Standard Chartered has significantly lowered its multi-year price targets for the leading cryptocurrency.

The bank now predicts that Bitcoin will reach US$ 100,000 by the end of 2025, down from its previous target of US$ 200,000. Although its long-term outlook remains at US$ 500,000, the timeline has been pushed back from 2028 to 2030.

Bitcoin is currently trapped in a narrow range, with no catalysts to push it higher. The world’s largest cryptocurrency is trading at US$ 93,981, a 4.2% increase over the last 24 hours.

Bitcoin Price Outlook

The downward revision of the bank’s recommendation stems from a recalibration of demand expectations. Geoffrey Kendrick, an analyst at Standard Chartered, cited the end of a major demand source and a slower-than-expected institutional adoption rate via ETFs (exchange-traded funds) as factors motivating the recalibration.

Kendrick states that aggressive buying by digital asset treasury companies “has come to an end,” adding that “future increases in Bitcoin’s price will be driven by only one factor: ETF purchases.”

As a result, the market now relies on periodic ETF flows, which have decreased drastically. The current quarterly flow of 50,000 BTC is the lowest since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US.

Compared to the 450,000 BTC purchased per quarter at the end of 2024, by both ETFs and digital asset treasuries, this number has fallen sharply.

Additionally, the report highlights political pressure on the Federal Reserve, which is influencing the risk asset class.

While investors are optimistic about an expected 0.25 percentage point rate cut at the Fed’s decision, the outlook largely depends on the Fed chair’s guidance for the coming year.

The appointment of Kevin Hassett could encourage a looser monetary policy, potentially prompting investors to seek assets like Bitcoin as protection.

“This time, it’s really different,” Kendrick wrote, explicitly rejecting old halving cycle models. “We believe crypto winters are a thing of the past.”

Although Bitcoin has repeatedly tested the US$ 90,000 mark over the past two weeks, the short-term outlook largely depends on the outcome of the Fed meeting.