Bitcoin Traders Bet on 2026 Boom, Not a Santa Rally, Following Fed Rate Cut

Source: CryptoNewsNet Original Title: Bitcoin Traders Bet on 2026 Boom, Not a Santa Rally, Following Fed Rate Cut Original Link: The Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut this week is aligning with a steady spike in bullish options bets.

The most active strike in the options market is the $100,000 call option expiring on December 26, with over 18,360 bullish contracts open compared to just 2,540 bearish puts, according to options analytics data.

However, the structure of these bets suggests traders are positioning for a limited, tactical bounce rather than an unbounded Santa rally. The large open interest is composed of strategies like long call condors and bull call spreads, which share a view of limited upside potential.

The central bank also announced it will begin purchasing roughly $40 billion per month in short-term Treasury bills starting Friday. It’s a technical move designed to manage liquidity in the banking system and maintain firm control over its benchmark interest rate target.

Despite those developments, a tempered outlook is being reflected across other market data points.

Though the 25-delta options skew improved from -8% to -5% in two weeks, it remains negative, indicating continued demand for downside protection despite the post-Fed optimism.

As such, the potential for a relief rally is capped at $99,000, according to market analysis.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $89,500, down 2.4% over 24 hours and roughly 5.5% below its intraday high of $94,267 following the Fed decision.

What’s driving the drop?

“With Christmas and year-end settlement approaching, this period historically marks the weakest liquidity conditions in crypto,” according to options analytics experts. “Market activity tends to be subdued, limiting the near-term momentum for any sustained rally.”

The decline in implied volatility, which notes reduced expectations for near-term price swings, further explains why a Santa rally is unlikely.

Instead, the most significant bullish conviction is being deferred to early 2026.

“The chance of Bitcoin reclaiming and settling above $100,000 by Christmas now sits at around 24%,” according to on-chain options platform analysis.

“Bulls are levering up for an explosive Q1,” with a heavy build-up of call options at the $130,000 and $180,000 strikes for March of next year as evidence of where traders see the real opportunity.