The last Federal Reserve meeting of 2025 has concluded, and the market remains calm. The dot plot has loosened somewhat compared to September, but it's still a far cry from what traders are hoping for. Now everyone's attention is focused on 2026 — when Powell will pass the baton to Haskett, and the fresh dot plot released in June will be the real highlight.

This time, Powell's statements are quite restrained. He hasn't closed the door on rate cuts in January, and he's somewhat optimistic about inflation trends, thinking that tariffs might be a "one-and-done" impact that won't continue to disrupt the market. The familiar logic is being recycled: if inflation continues to soften, consider multiple rate cuts. If employment data crashes, act quickly to stabilize the market.

The next month will depend on how the data plays out. The more fragile the labor market, the more fervent the expectations for rate cuts; the softer the inflation numbers, the stronger the anticipation of easing. There's also a variable: the Supreme Court may issue a ruling in January on tariffs implemented during Trump's term, which will also need close attention. Overall, Powell's stance this time is notably softer than the hawkish tone in December last year, and he remains quite confident about economic growth next year.

Bitcoin data is even more interesting. Recently, turnover rates have skyrocketed, indicating that investors are actively gambling during policy windows. After the meeting concludes, this indicator is likely to decline. On-chain tracking shows that short-term traders are extremely active, and those who have been bottom-fishing below $90,000 are already starting to take profits.

The good news is that the distribution of holdings remains relatively healthy, with no signs of structural issues. Those trapped at high levels aren't rushing to sell, and panic isn't evident. The subsequent market trend will heavily depend on data trends: if rate cut expectations really gain momentum in January, market enthusiasm can continue. The economic data released in December and how they reshape rate path expectations are the most important factors to watch right now.