The results of the Fed's last rate hike meeting were rather uneventful, but the direction of the dot plot adjustments is worth noting—compared to September, there is indeed some easing, but it still falls short of market expectations. The real key points are actually pointing towards 2026; once Powell steps down and Hassett takes over, the new dot plot in June will be the crucial factor in determining the subsequent pace.

This time, Powell’s attitude has shifted quite noticeably. Although he hasn't made any commitments regarding a rate cut in January, he appears much more optimistic about inflation, especially emphasizing that the impact of tariffs on goods inflation is mostly a "one-time event." His logic is clear: as long as inflation continues to decline, the Fed has room to cut rates; once the labor market weakens, the Fed will surely follow suit. Compared to the hawkish stance in December last year, his current attitude is on a completely different level.

The next month will be critical. The strength of labor data and the temperature of inflation data will directly determine the probability of a rate cut. Additionally, the Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs in January could introduce some uncertainties that warrant close attention.

Bitcoin remains quite hot. Recently, the turnover rate has surged significantly, which is a typical sign of a policy window—various funds are betting on expectations. After the meeting concludes, the turnover rate is expected to gradually decline. Many of those who entered below $90,000 have already locked in profits and exited. Short-term traders remain highly active.

The current chip structure is still relatively stable, with no clear panic signals, and those caught at high positions are not rushing to sell. The market’s temperature going forward mainly depends on data performance—if expectations for a rate cut in January continue to rise, the market’s heat could sustain a bit longer. The key should be closely watching the economic data released in December; whether this data can reshape market expectations for interest rate paths is what truly matters.

Overall, Powell’s policy tone this time is clearly dovish, and the outlook for economic growth in 2026 is also optimistic. The surge in Bitcoin’s turnover rate reflects the market’s reaction to policy uncertainty; currently, data remains the real driver. Don’t overinterpret superficial technical analysis; focus on labor indicators, inflation data, and the Supreme Court issue—these are the actual factors that can change the trend.