So Powell just dropped something interesting during his recent remarks. The Fed's internal team suspects federal employment data might be running hot—potentially overstating job creation by around 60k positions every single month.

Think about that for a second. If they're right, we're not just talking about minor statistical noise here. This magnitude of overestimation could mean the labor market isn't nearly as robust as headline numbers suggest. In fact, it might actually be contracting when you strip away the data inflation.

This matters way more than people realize. Employment figures drive everything from rate decisions to market sentiment. If the foundation's been shaky this whole time, we might need to rethink where things actually stand.