Why has the market been so frustrating lately? Basically, because the Federal Reserve is having a fight.

Let's outline the transmission chain: conflicting economic data → officials each saying different things → chaotic expectations of rate cuts → global capital unsure where to go → everyone watching with chips in hand, and risk assets like BTC naturally can't go up or down easily.

So what's the current situation? The core dilemma boils down to two points:

Inflation has been halved but has stalled, yet the unemployment rate is still rising.

In plain language:
Prices that should have fallen haven't fallen yet,
And it's getting harder to find work.

Let me give you an analogy.

Suppose you're running a restaurant in the US, and you're facing these problems: rising ingredient costs, higher rent, employees demanding raises, utility bills going up, insurance increasing. Costs are skyrocketing—what can you do?

Lay off staff? Losing one or two isn't a big deal, but who will cook and serve if you cut too many?
Cut wages? Don't even think about it. Not giving raises is already generous; lowering wages might mean your dishes get "special seasoning" next time.
Raise menu prices? That can work, but if you raise prices too much, customers will just go to the competitor.

This is all a typical owner can do.

So now we're stuck: if you want to control costs, you can't move too much on employees; if you want to keep profits, you can't just raise prices freely. In the end, everyone just toughs it out, afraid to make a bold move.

This deadlock reflects on the macro level as well—it's the Federal Reserve caught in a dilemma: lowering interest rates risks reigniting inflation, but not lowering them risks an employment collapse. Policy swings wildly, and the market naturally has no clear direction.