Last night's Federal Reserve meeting concluded, highlighting two truly noteworthy points:
First, the pace of interest rate cuts—there will be one more in 2026 and 2027 each. Some might think "only two? That's too few," but consider this from another angle: at least it's confirmed that the next two years will remain in a loose monetary policy, and the liquidity expectation remains intact, which is the biggest reassurance. No rate hikes are on the horizon.
More critically, starting December 13th, the Fed will engage in operations: repurchasing 40 billion USD of short-term government bonds each month. Previously, they had been shrinking the balance sheet to tighten liquidity, but now they are directly expanding the balance sheet. This is equivalent to the central bank actively injecting money into the market. Don't just focus on the 25 basis point rate cut; the real signal of policy shift is hidden in the balance sheet.
Powell's words and actions are aligned, clearly indicating: liquidity is on its way.
For the crypto market, short-term volatility will continue, but long-term depends on new capital inflows. But trying to push a one-sided trend in December? Difficult. Two hurdles stand in the way: the Bank of Japan's rate hike expectations( have already been priced in), and the seasonal tightness of liquidity at year-end( Christmas crunch is an old tradition). Without new catalysts, only old news will be repeated.
What to do in the next two weeks? The strategy is pretty clear: look for shorting opportunities at the highs, or hold onto the long positions bought last night at low leverage and wait and see. Short-term support levels are around 3130 and 2940, but there’s a high chance of retesting the previous low near 2700. Don’t rush to bottom fish; wait until the market structure becomes clearer.
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SilentAlpha
· 12-14 08:11
Expanding the balance sheet and injecting money, this is the real signal; interest rate cuts are just a show
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Wait, you say 25 basis points and it's all over? Why do I feel like I've been fooled
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The Christmas heist meme is too savage, every year it's a trap
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Will 2700 really be tested? Feels like this time might be different
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The balance sheet speaks for itself; I hadn't thought of this angle before
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Still daring to hold long positions at low leverage? Truly brave
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The expectation of liquidity injection is enough, no matter what he says
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Short-term is still dragging on, it's pointless
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Let's watch 3130 first; only act if it's broken
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Why wait for a new catalyst? Old news is the new market trend
View OriginalReply0
MissingSats
· 12-12 22:58
The signal to expand the chart is so clear, yet you're still worrying about the number of interest rate cuts? Wake up.
View OriginalReply0
BearMarketBuilder
· 12-11 10:55
The expanded chart is here, and this wave is indeed quite interesting...
It's really easing up, but we still have to endure December—the Christmas curse is truly a curse...
To put it simply, the key level at 2700 must hold, don't get carried away...
Seasonal liquidity positioning, in the short term, it's just consumption...
After all the fuss, it still depends on new funds entering the market; just talking about good things is useless...
View OriginalReply0
EntryPositionAnalyst
· 12-11 10:52
The expanded balance sheet signals indeed change the game, the balance sheet is the real story.
View OriginalReply0
WagmiWarrior
· 12-11 10:33
Expanding the table and pouring money in is the real signal, much more interesting than that 25bp.
View OriginalReply0
BlockchainFries
· 12-11 10:32
The expansion is here, finally no more draining the pool.
View OriginalReply0
BankruptcyArtist
· 12-11 10:27
Injecting liquidity is one thing, but breaking the deadlock in December still seems difficult.
Last night's Federal Reserve meeting concluded, highlighting two truly noteworthy points:
First, the pace of interest rate cuts—there will be one more in 2026 and 2027 each. Some might think "only two? That's too few," but consider this from another angle: at least it's confirmed that the next two years will remain in a loose monetary policy, and the liquidity expectation remains intact, which is the biggest reassurance. No rate hikes are on the horizon.
More critically, starting December 13th, the Fed will engage in operations: repurchasing 40 billion USD of short-term government bonds each month. Previously, they had been shrinking the balance sheet to tighten liquidity, but now they are directly expanding the balance sheet. This is equivalent to the central bank actively injecting money into the market. Don't just focus on the 25 basis point rate cut; the real signal of policy shift is hidden in the balance sheet.
Powell's words and actions are aligned, clearly indicating: liquidity is on its way.
For the crypto market, short-term volatility will continue, but long-term depends on new capital inflows. But trying to push a one-sided trend in December? Difficult. Two hurdles stand in the way: the Bank of Japan's rate hike expectations( have already been priced in), and the seasonal tightness of liquidity at year-end( Christmas crunch is an old tradition). Without new catalysts, only old news will be repeated.
What to do in the next two weeks? The strategy is pretty clear: look for shorting opportunities at the highs, or hold onto the long positions bought last night at low leverage and wait and see. Short-term support levels are around 3130 and 2940, but there’s a high chance of retesting the previous low near 2700. Don’t rush to bottom fish; wait until the market structure becomes clearer.