From the day I turned my initial capital of 20,000 into my target amount, I turned off my trading software. After eight years of following this system, it’s time for it to rest.

There’s no legendary story. No insider information, no divine predictions, and I’ve even been mocked within the circle with “Your method is too stupid.” But it’s this simple, clumsy approach that has kept me alive in this ruthless market. The core principle is: **Watch three lines, stick to the bottom line**.

# How to judge if you should act

I focus on three things:
- **50-day moving average** — a short-term trend indicator. When the price is above it, it's strong; when it falls below, be alert;
- **200-day moving average** — the dividing line between bull and bear markets. No need to fear pullbacks in a bull market; don’t take rebounds in a bear market seriously;
- **Volume** — whether money is truly flowing in. During breakouts or sharp declines, volume should be at least three times the six-month average, otherwise it’s likely a false move.

A few years ago, when BTC broke through a key price level, the 50-day line just crossed above the 200-day line, and volume exploded — I made a rare decision to increase my holdings (the only time), and later that wave of market made me accumulate my initial capital.

The greatest value of this system isn’t telling you “when to profit,” but rather “when not to touch.”

# Three rules for surviving long

**1. Never allocate more than 15% of your portfolio to a single coin**
When LTC skyrocketed that year, I only invested 12%. Later, it dropped 80%, but I was unscathed. Diversification isn’t cowardice; it’s keeping your options open.

**2. Cut losses immediately when stop-loss line is hit**
Mainstream coins dropping 8% below the 50-day moving average, I sell immediately; altcoins dropping 5%, I get out. The night before the LUNA collapse, my system automatically sold 1% of my holdings, losing just over $70,000, while some friends were forced into debt.

**3. Make no more than three trades per month**
When I first started, I watched the charts daily, trying to catch every fluctuation, but I ended up losing my mindset. Later, I forced myself to only make three trades a month, which helped me accurately catch the rebound after the 312 crash, and the key turning point of a certain bull market. Less trading, more profit.

There’s no secret, just strict discipline. This market isn’t short of smart people; what’s missing is the ability to control oneself.